India: BigMint's billet index surges by INR 1,700/t amid global uncertainty

• Geopolitical tensions fuel raw material supply concerns
  
  
• Buying remains selective at elevated price levels
  
  

BigMint's billet index surged by INR 1,700/t d-o-d to INR 41,700/t exw-Raipur on 2 March 2026, due to heightened geopolitical tensions between the US and Israel on one side and Iran on the other and resulting concerns over potential raw material supply disruptions.

The sharp rally followed a robust uptrend in both semi-finished and finished steel segments in recent sessions. Improved offtake and aggressive bookings earlier contributed to tighter availability, prompting producers to raise spot offers significantly. Additionally, fears of coal and logistics disruptions amid escalating Middle East tensions triggered precautionary price revisions.

Despite the steep increase, buying activity remained subdued at elevated levels. Participants adopted a cautious stance, particularly ahead of upcoming festive holidays that may disrupt dispatch schedules and transport availability. Enquiry volumes were limited, with only selective transactions concluded at negotiated levels. A Raipur-based trader said, "The rally is largely sentiment-driven on raw material fears. Actual buying at these levels is still cautious."

Finished steel jumps sharply

In Raipur, both rebar and wire rod prices surged by INR 1,800/t d-o-d, reflecting strong upward revisions in offers. However, buying interest remained restrained at higher levels, indicating resistance from end-users.

Sponge iron strengthens

Sponge iron prices in Raipur rose sharply by INR 1,850/t d-o-d, supported by raw material concerns and previous booking momentum. Nevertheless, buyers largely adopted a wait-and-watch approach, as sufficient volumes had already been secured at lower levels.

The conversion spread from pellet-based sponge iron (PDRI) to billets for standalone induction furnaces in Raipur was assessed at around INR 14,000/t, indicating improved spreads amid higher billet realisations.

Rationale

This index is derived based on transactions, offers, bids, and indicative price data sets. Transactions are considered T1 and given a weightage of 50%, whereas other data sets are considered as T2 and given a weightage of the balance 50%.

Transactions (T1) - Two trades at INR 41,400-41,500/t were recorded during the 10:30 am to 5:30 pm BigMint trading window and considered for final price calculation as T1 inputs. The average of these transactions was INR 41,481/t, which was given a 50% weightage in the final price calculation.

Other price indicators - bids/offers/indicatives (T2) - Twenty offers were reported in the trading window and considered as T2 inputs. The average price of these twenty was INR 41,540/t and given a 50% weightage in the final price calculation.

The final price of billets was INR 41,510/t exw-Raipur, rounded off to INR 41,500/t exw.

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