India: BigMint's pellet export index drops $4/t w-o-w on weakening iron ore fines prices

• Weak iron ore fines prices, rising supply pressure pellet market
  
  
• Producers focus on domestic sales amid improving realisations
  
  

BigMint's India pellet (Fe 63%, 3-3.5% Al) export index declined sharply by $4/t w-o-w to $98/t FOB east coast on 10 June 2026 against $102/t on 3 June. The export market witnessed slow offers, with market participants closely tracking iron ore prices and Chinese raw material inventories.

Additionally, Chinese pellet inventories across 34 major ports stood at around 6.87 mnt, down by 0.14 mnt against 7.01 mnt recorded a week ago. Seaborne pellet trade activity remained subdued over the past few days as weakening global prices and cautious buyer sentiment continued to weigh on fresh transactions. Most Indian exporters were said to be holding back offers amid the widening gap between seller expectations and workable buyer indications in the overseas market.

A tender was floated for normal-grade low alumina pellet (Fe 63%, Al2O3<1.5%), which was heard to be concluded at $105/t CFR Vizag in domestic market for LTA deal amid weak export bids.

Rationale

• Zero confirmed deals from India's east coast was recorded in this publishing window for T1 trade, and, therefore, this category was allotted 0% weightage for today's price calculations. Click here for the detailed methodology.
  
  
• Thirteen (13) indicative prices were received, and eleven (11) were considered for the calculation of the index and given a balance 100% weightage.
  
  

Market updates

As per market participants, most export offers for Indian pellets were currently being heard at around $120+/t CFR China. However, these levels were largely considered unviable by buyers given the recent weakness in seaborne iron ore prices and continued pressure on Chinese steel mill profitability.

However, some pellet producers that sold multiple cargoes last month now were occupied with shipping the material. Spot deals were absent in market amid bid-offer disparities among market players.

Market participants noted that an improvement in domestic prices realisation reduced the urgency among pellet producers to aggressively liquidate cargoes in the export market.

A buyer informed BigMint, "Iron ore fines prices are likely to soften further as fresh supply of some sub-Fe (Fe 55% and below) branded products is expected to enter the market in the coming weeks, which may eventually weigh on pellet prices as well."

The expected increase in lower-grade fines availability was said to be creating additional pressure on pellet sentiment, particularly as Chinese buyers continued to monitor raw material costs closely amid weak steel demand conditions.

A trader commented, "Several pellet cargoes booked earlier for exports are currently lying unsold in China amid subdued overseas trade activity and weak buyer participation. Trades look subdued ahead."

Market sources added that some exporters were currently reassessing shipment plans as spot buying interest from overseas buyers remained limited. Buyers were largely heard maintaining bids at lower levels, while fresh negotiations continued to move slowly amid expectations of further correction in the seaborne ferrous market.

Domestic vs export market

The price gap between export and domestic realisations was recorded at INR 375/t this week, increasing by INR 350/t. Export realisations (Fe 63%) were at INR 7,375/t ($81/t) this week, reflecting downward pressure w-o-w amid drop in pellet prices. However, domestic realisations (Fe 62.5%) dipped by INR 50/t ($0.5/t) w-o-w to INR 7,750/t ($82/t) exw.

Factors impacting pellet exports

Chinese iron ore fines prices decline w-o-w: The benchmark iron ore fines Fe 61% index dropped by $4/dmt w-o-w to $101/dmt CFR China on 9 June. Market sentiment remained weak as elevated coke prices continued squeezing steel mill margins, limiting raw material procurement. Meanwhile, miners accelerated cargo shipments ahead of the Australian financial year-end, while traders actively offloaded inventories in a declining market, adding pressure on prices.

DCE iron ore futures edge down w-o-w: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the September 2026 contract settled at RMB 762.5/t ($112/t) on 10 June, weakening w-o-w.

Vessel freights steady w-o-w: Iron ore freights remained stable w-o-w at $16/dmt on 10 June. Vessel availability on the India-China route remained tight, although fixture activity was healthy.

Outlook