India: BF-route rebar prices ease further as weak demand continues

• BF-route rebar prices drop to lowest level in over 6 months
  
  
• Buyers negotiate aggressively on muted construction activity
  
  

India's BF-route rebar market remained under pressure in the assessment week ended 26 June 2026, with trade-level prices (distributor-to-dealer) declining by INR 700/t w-o-w to INR 51,000/t ($540/t) exy-Mumbai as of 26 June 2026, according to BigMint's assessments. The correction has pushed prices to their lowest level in over six months, reflecting weak buying interest and highe inventory levels across the supply chain.

Market sentiment remained cautious as distributors continued to hold inventories exceeding 35-40 days, compared to around 30 days in the previous week, while buyers restricted purchases to immediate requirements amid subdued construction activity. Stable raw material prices offered limited support, while the availability of lower-priced IF-route rebar continued to weigh on BF-route values.

Market sentiment remained bearish in June, with Mumbai BF-route rebar prices declining by INR 4,800/t month-to-date (MTD) due to weak demand, high inventories, and a monsoon-induced slowdown in construction activity

Southern India, especially Chennai and Bengaluru, witnessed subdued construction activity due to heavy rainfall, weighing on rebar demand. However, supply constraints at a major BF-route steel producer limited material availability, resulting in a slower pace of price correction compared with other regions.

In the project segment, deals were concluded at INR 49,000-50,000/t ($519-529/t) landed, with buyers leveraging sluggish demand conditions to negotiate lower prices. Limited project execution and slow fund flows further restrained procurement activity.

Factors driving market dynamics

1. IF-route prices decline further: IF-route rebar prices fell by INR 100-800/t w-o-w across major markets this week. However, markets such as Rourkela, Jalna, and Delhi remained largely stable. Trading activity remained subdued, with buyers restricting purchases to immediate requirements amid weak market sentiment. Overall demand remained sluggish, limiting trade volumes across regions. Inventory levels were reported at around 10-15 days, while dispatches remained smooth and uninterrupted. In Mumbai, IF-route rebar trade prices decreased by INR 400/t ($4/t) w-o-w to INR 45,300/t ($480/t) ex-works as of 25 June.Meanwhile, the BF-IF rebar price spread in Mumbai remained stable w-o-w at INR 6,000/t ($63/t). The differential, which was close to INR 10,000/t ($106/t) at the beginning of June, has compressed sharply, improving the competitiveness of BF-route material.

IF-route rebar continues to maintain a dominant share in India's long steel market due to its pricing advantage.

2. Raw material costs remain largely stable: Among key BF-route raw materials, iron ore prices remained stable, and coking coal prices eased further. BigMint's Odisha iron ore fines (Fe 62%) index remained unchanged at INR 4,950/t ($52/t) ex-mines on 20 June, while premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices declined by $1/t w-o-w to $262/t CNF Paradip on 25 June.

Project updates

So far during June 2026, over INR 55,000 crore worth of project awards and milestones across highways, ports, power, and water infrastructure have been announced. The developments are expected to support steel demand, including 15,000-20,000 t from the INR 2,000+ crore Jal Jeevan Mission 2.0 projects alone, as per recent tender activity.

Outlook

BigMint believes that monsoon-related disruptions to construction activity and elevated inventories will continue to weigh on BF-route rebar prices next week.