India: BF rebar trade prices remain range-bound w-o-w in dull market

• IF-rebar trade prices show mix trends
  
  
• Project demand subdued in cautious market
  
  

Trade-level blast furnace (BF) rebar prices remained range-bound w-o-w across markets owing to dull demand and limited material availability. Trade-level BF rebar prices edged down w-o-w by INR 100/t ($1/t) to INR 52,600/tonne (t) ($607/t) exy in Mumbai, as per BigMint's assessment on 21 February 2025. Prices are exclusive of GST at 18%.

In the project segment, prices ranged within INR 50,000-51,000/t ($577-588/t) FOR Mumbai. Buyers were cautious in placing orders which resulted in need-based demand.

"The supply of materials has been limited, with only 25% of the ordered quantity delivered. Currently, there is an imbalance between market demand and available supply," highlighted a market source.

In addition to above, a leading private steel manufacturer's blast furnace will be down for the coming quarter, which will result in a production impact of around 30,000 t per month.

Project updates

L&T's Minerals & Metals business secured an order from Hindalco to build an 850-KTPA alumina refinery in Odisha, covering engineering, procurement, construction, and installation.

Factors behind market dynamics

1. IF rebar prices show mix trend w-o-w: Induction furnace (IF) rebar trade prices exhibited mixed trends w-o-w due to need-based buying activities. Manufacturers attempted to raise prices, but due to the slow demand, they ended up offering trade discounts. Traders were hesitant to purchase large volumes. Inventory idling time decreased to approximately 10-12 days across markets. As per BigMint's assessment, IF rebar prices rose by INR 700/t ($8/t) w-o-w to INR 48,600/t ($561/t) exw-Mumbai.

The price gap between BF-IF rebars narrowed to around INR 4,000-4,500/t ($46-52/t) in the Mumbai market. Notably, IF rebars command a 65-70% share of the market.

2. Raw material prices edge up w-o-w: BigMint's Odisha iron ore fines (Fe 62%) index inched up by INR 50/t ($0.57/t) w-o-w to INR 4,850/t ($56/t) on 15 February 2025. Iron ore prices in Odisha stayed steady this week as trading activity slowed in anticipation of the upcoming OMC auction on 19 February. Market participants are awaiting the announcement of base prices and the total quantity to be offered in the next few days.

Additionally, Australian premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices edged up by $3/t w-o-w to $202/t CNF Paradip.

Outlook

Trade prices may remain range-bound in the coming days amid the ongoing mismatch between supply and demand.