India: Average steel prices soften slightly y-o-y in FY'26 but raw material prices remain firm

• Average domestic iron ore prices rise by 10-13% y-o-y
  
  
• Steel prices witness sharp recovery in Q4 on safeguard duty effect
  
  
• West Asia disruption boosts domestic steel prices in March
  
  

Morning Brief: In FY'26, the Indian steel industry witnessed balanced production growth at a time of declining global production. As per BigMint data, crude steel production in the just-concluded fiscal year was 168 mnt, an increase of 11% y-o-y. Rapid urbanisation and infrastructure investment boosted steel capacity expansion. Budget 2026 proposed an infrastructure construction pipeline of INR 12.2 lakh crore.

However, steel consumption lagged production growth, increasing by 7% y-o-y boosted by private and public construction, affirmative income tax and GST policies and growth in the infrastructure and renewable energy sectors. Domestic supply pressure was somewhat alleviated by the nearly 30% growth in finished steel exports, although production was firmly anchored in domestic demand.

Steel prices remained under pressure, as evinced by the 2% yearly drop in the BigMint India steel composite index. Weak sentiment and decrease in production in key geographies such as China, the EU and the Far East weighed on steel prices. US tariffs impacted manufacturing sentiment while an extended monsoon weighed on construction. Positive trade policies and the sharp 23% decrease in steel imports provided some support to prices.

While steel prices weakened through most of the year, raw materials prices remained firm, largely owing to tight supplies. Steel prices began to witness a steady recovery only in Q4FY'26 post announcement of the final safeguard duty on flat steel imports.

Price movements in FY'26

Iron ore: BigMint's iron ore fines and lumps indices for the domestic market edged higher by 10% and 13% y-o-y, respectively, as tight domestic supplies supported prices. Domestic iron ore production increased a much slower 6% y-o-y compared with the 11% uptick in steel production. Non-operationalisation of auctioned mines in many states weighed on supplies. Scarcity of high-grade ore and lumps saw imports surging by over 90% y-o-y. Therefore, prices remained on the higher side in FY'26.

Coking coal: Premium coking coal prices averaged $217/t in FY'26 compared with $226/t in FY'25, a decrease of just 4% on the year. Weak sentiments in China, Japan and the EU weighed on coking coal prices while seaborne spot demand was mainly anchored by India. Occasional supply disruptions in Australia kept prices supported. Cyclones in Queensland and the Iran conflict boosted prices towards the end of the fiscal. Geopolitical tensions also propelled freight rates which supported coking coal delivered prices.

Non-coking coal: Average imported non-coking coal import prices eroded 7-8% y-o-y as lower thermal generation led to a rare decline in thermal coal imports. Higher domestic coal production and weakening steel prices also weighed on imported non-coking coal prices.

Melting scrap: Imported melting scrap prices declined on decreasing prices into Turkiye, the world's top scrap importer, which saw imports edging lower amid pressure on steel exports, and the rapid inflow of metallics and semis imports, particularly due to the high volume of Chinese steel exports. Currency depreciation also weighed on Turkiye's import appetite. India's domestic generation increased by 25% y-o-y, allowing the country to minimise overseas dependency to an extent.

Sponge iron: Average sponge iron prices in FY'26 declined by 7% y-o-y due to the decline in semis, scrap and steel prices. Non-coking coal prices also edged down on-year. Although volatile scrap prices swung the balance in favour of sponge, soft steel prices as well as higher domestic production and supplies weighed on prices.

Pig iron: Likewise, prices of other metallics such as pig iron also decreased by 8% y-o-y The DI pipe segment, auto sector and foundry production sustained demand, while quantitative restrictions on coke imports and later AD duty tightened supplies. However, declining coking coal and coke prices as well as weak steel prices impacted pig iron.

Billet: BigMint's billet index for Raipur fell by 5% on average amid weak steel market conditions and pressure on rebar and construction steel prices. Weakening raw material prices, too, impacted semis. With steel prices edging down to a five-year low towards the end of CY'25, billet prices remained under pressure.

Rebar: Both IF and BF route rebar prices declined by 3-4% y-o-y on average in the last fiscal as overall steel prices fell to multi-year lows. The y-o-y decline would have been sharper but for the sustained rise in prices in the last quarter post the announcement of definitive safeguard duty on 31 December, although the provisional duty was in place since mid-April. Thanks to successive hikes by the primary mills, average BF rebar prices rose by INR 12,000/t in the last quarter, thereby supporting the yearly average.

HRC: Like rebar, domestic HRC prices, too, rose sharply in Q4 amid fast-decreasing steel imports post implementation of safeguard duty. Between the last week of December and end-March, domestic HRC prices rose by around INR 9,500/t amid the shrinking spread with landed cost of imports from FTA countries and China. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East prompted restocking in March, thereby boosting prices further as domestic supplies tightened following inventory drawdown.

Silico manganese: Domestic silico manganese prices edged down marginally y-o-y as steel prices weakened in the domestic market. Export demand was also passive due to weak global demand. However, higher prices of imported manganese ore kept silico prices supported.

Outlook

Amid shipping disruptions, rising freights and trade uncertainty, domestic steel prices may stay firm in the near term. In FY'27, domestic crude steel production may reach around 180 mnt and demand growth is likely to be around 8-10% y-o-y. Higher domestic supplies amid export constraints are likely to pile pressure on prices in the mid-term.