India: Aluminium prices rise further as global benchmarks rally, tight inventories support market

• Need-based procurement continues at elevated levels
  
  
• Short-term tightness offsets demand caution
  
  

Domestic aluminium prices in India extended their upward trend as of 16 April 2026, tracking continued gains in aluminium futures on both the London Metal Exchange (LME) and the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX), supported by firm market sentiment.

As per market assessments, P1020 ingot prices in Delhi NCR increased by INR 20,000/t, or 5.2%, w-o-w to INR 378,000/t on 16 April, up from INR 358,000/t on 09 April. Similarly, Mumbai prices rose by INR 19,000/t, or 5%, to INR 379,000/t, compared to INR 360,000/t in the previous week.

How did Indian and global exchanges perform?

Domestic aluminium futures on the MCX registered a sharp w-o-w increase of INR 18,350/t, or 4.91%, reflecting strong bullish sentiment in the domestic market. Recent exchange quotes around 16 April also show MCX aluminium futures trading in the INR 370/kg range, broadly consistent with the uptrend.

In the global market, 3-month aluminium prices on the LME increased by $229/t, or 6.21%, to $3,679/t. Meanwhile, stocks at LME-registered warehouses declined by 9,950 t, or 2.5%, to 391,675 t, indicating continued supply tightness and lending further support to prices. LME warehouse stocks and pricing data for mid-April also continue to point to firm market conditions.

Market updates

A major primary producer reported that domestic P1020 aluminium premiums remained firm at $310/t, supported by the sharp rebound in global benchmark prices and continued tightness in near-term supply conditions. Market participants indicated that buying activity has turned more cautious at elevated price levels; however, the strong recovery in LME prices and declining exchange inventories continue to lend support to domestic offers. While material availability remains stable, higher replacement costs have started influencing market sentiment and pricing decisions.

Reflecting the recent market trend, NALCO's primary aluminium ingot (P1020, 99.7%) average price increased by INR 10,100/t, or around 2.7%, from INR 373,500/t on 1 April to INR 383,600/t on 15 April, indicating a firming trend in producer pricing in line with the broader strength in domestic and global aluminium markets.

Meanwhile, BALCO's average price levels increased by INR 7,962/t, or around 2%, rising to INR 398,792/t in the latest assessment from INR 390,830/t previously, while Hindalco's average prices also moved up by INR 3,937/t, or around 1%, from INR 397,813/t to INR 401,750/t over the same period.

Century Aluminum ramps up Mt. Holly output; expansion to lift US supply

Century Aluminum has started hot metal production at its expanded Mt. Holly plant in South Carolina, targeting full capacity by June 2026. The move is expected to raise US primary aluminium output by 10% and create over 125 jobs. In parallel, the company, with Emirates Global Aluminum, plans a new Oklahoma smelter adding 750,000 t capacity, alongside significant job creation and federal funding support.

Outlook

Domestic aluminium prices are likely to remain firm in the near term, supported by strong gains on LME and MCX along with declining exchange inventories. Higher replacement costs may continue to support producer offers, though buying activity is expected to stay largely need-based at elevated price levels.

Going ahead, market direction will depend on downstream demand response and the sustainability of global price momentum. While near-term fundamentals remain supportive, caution in long-dated contracts suggests the market is still watchful of possible supply normalisation and softer demand in the coming weeks.