India: Aluminium prices fall INR 17,000/t w-o-w, tracking weaker exchanges

• LME aluminium dips 3% amid US-Iran peace deal
  
  
• Domestic premiums remain stable amid tight supply
  
  

Domestic aluminium prices in India declined sharply w-o-w as of 19 June 2026, tracking weaker trends on both the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) and the London Metal Exchange (LME).

According to BigMint's assessments, P1020 aluminium ingot prices in Delhi NCR fell by INR 17,000/t (4%) w-o-w to INR 365,000/t on 19 June from INR 382,000/t on 12 June. Similarly, Ex-Mumbai P1020 aluminium ingot prices declined by INR 19,000/t (5%) w-o-w to INR 364,000/t from INR 383,000/t during the same period, leaving Mumbai prices marginally lower than Delhi by around INR 1,000/t.

How did Indian and global exchanges perform?

Domestic aluminium futures on the MCX declined w-o-w by INR 17,700/t, or 5%, to INR 356,000/t on 19 June from INR 373,700/t on 12 June'26.

Similarly, three-month aluminium prices on the LME fell by $112/t, or 3%, to $3,398/t on 19 June from $3,510/t on 12 June. Meanwhile, LME aluminium stocks declined by 6,475 t, or 2%, to 315,525 t from 322,000 t during the same period.

LME aluminium prices have corrected by 11% from their 2026 peak of $3,854/t on 2 June to $3,418/t on 15 June following the tentative US-Iran peace deal and expectations of the Strait of Hormuz reopening. However, supply recovery is expected to be gradual, with GCC aluminium output still at only 62% of pre-war levels and major producers such as EGA, Alba, and Qatalum operating at 30-60% of capacity. There is a potential for a further 5-10% price correction in the near term, although the market is expected to remain in deficit through 2026 as smelter restarts and logistics normalisation could take several months.

Market updates

A major primary producer reported that domestic P1020 aluminium premiums remained at around $300-320/t despite declines in LME aluminium and MCX prices. Market participants attributed the stable premiums to lower replacement costs and cautious buying activity, while continued tightness in exchange inventories offered limited support to domestic offers. Market participants said the physical market remained tight and is expected to move into a deficit in 2026, providing underlying support to premiums despite lower benchmark prices and cautious buying activity.

NALCO reduced its primary aluminium ingot (P1020, 99.7%) prices on 18 June, lowering the benchmark to INR 376,500/t ($4,178/t) from INR 393,800/t ($4,370/t) on 13 June, reflecting a decline of INR 17,300/t ($192/t).

Meanwhile, BALCO recorded a 3% w-o-w decline, with average prices falling to INR 402,563/t from INR 415,750/t. Similarly, Hindalco prices declined by 6% w-o-w to INR 389,250/t from INR 413,300/t during the same period.

Outlook

Domestic aluminium prices are expected to remain under pressure in the near term, tracking weaker MCX and LME trends. However, tight physical availability, stable domestic premiums, and an anticipated global aluminium deficit through 2026 may limit further downside and provide support to prices