India: 1,320 MW outage at Chandrapur power station deepens grid stress in Maharashtra

• Two 500MW units at CSTPS trip on tube leakage
  
  
• Maharashtra peak demand hits 28,970MW on 3 May
  
  

BigMint's analysis of NLDC daily PSP reports and IEX transaction data confirms that the forced outage of two 500 MW units at Maharashtra's Chandrapur Super Thermal Power Station (CSTPS) has intensified power supply stress in the western region, with evening peak prices on the IEX hitting the INR 10,000/MWh ceiling on multiple days.

CSTPS outage and immediate grid impact

CSTPS, one of Maharashtra's largest coal-fired plants with an installed capacity of 2,920 MW, suffered a significant generation loss as of 2 May when two 500 MW units were forced offline due to tube leakage faults. The plant's output slumped to 1,600 MW, a reduction of 1,320 MW or 45% of rated capacity.

CSTPS sources indicated urgent repair work was undertaken on a war footing. Unit 6 was expected to be synchronised and resume power generation by Sunday, 3 May, offering partial relief to the grid. However, Unit 5 was likely to remain non-operational for a few more days as extensive repair work continues.

Koradi plant provides marginal relief

A 210 MW unit at Nagpur's Koradi Thermal Power Station, which was shut on Friday, 1 May, was restarted on Saturday morning, 2 May. Koradi currently has three 660 MW units and one 210MW unit active. This 210 MW addition partially offsets the CSTPS loss but does not fully bridge the 1,320MW gap.

System-wide stress validated by NLDC and IEX data

Demand remains elevated across regions

The NLDC report for 3 May records all-India maximum demand met at 216,101 MW at 00:08 hours - indicating sustained late-night demand. Regional peaks were:

• Northern region: 66,411 MW (00:10)
  
  
• Western region: 70,514 MW (23:29)
  
  
• Southern region: 59,329 MW (15:18)
  
  
• Eastern region: 26,237 MW (19:50)
  
  
• North Eastern region: 2,845 MW (18:50)
  
  

Maharashtra's maximum demand met on 3 May stood at 28,970 MW, with energy met of 640.8 MU. No peak shortage was recorded at the state level, but the strain is visible in the IEX market.

IEX data shows extreme evening price spikes

The IEX market snapshot for 27 April to 4 May confirms multiple days of price caps during evening hours, directly coinciding with the CSTPS outage period. Key observations:

On 3 May - the day CSTPS Unit 6 was expected to be restored IEX recorded price caps at INR 10,000/MWh for seven consecutive hours from 01:00 to 07:00, with purchase bids as high as 15,147 MWh and sell bids as low as 10,265 MWh, reflecting acute supply shortage during late-night and early-morning hours.

Daytime prices, conversely, collapsed to near-zero levels. On 2 May, MCP fell to INR 99.60-200/MWh during solar hours (10:00-14:00), confirming the duck curve pattern continues even as base capacity remains offline.

Transmission and generation mix on 3 May

NLDC data for 3 May shows:

• Solar generation peaked during the day (57,000 MW at 13:45-14:00)
  
  
• Wind generation contributed 12,000-20,000 MW
  
  
• Hydro was ramped up to 23,000-24,000 MW during evening hours
  
  
• Thermal generation was reduced to 109,000-112,000 MW during solar hours and pushed to 160,000 MW at night
  
  

India remained a net exporter on 3 May, with net outflow of 14.6 MU, primarily to Bangladesh (-22.1 MU actual, -1,088 MW peak). Exports continued despite domestic stress.

What it means for the market?

For Maharashtra discoms: The CSTPS outage, which began on 2 May, has forced increased reliance on IEX spot market at prices of INR 10,000/MWh. With Unit 5 expected to remain offline for several more days and peak summer demand continuing, unhedged exposure remains costly. Discoms should explore short-term bilateral arrangements or storage-coupled contracts.

For power traders: The pattern of low daytime prices (INR 99-300/MWh) and high evening prices (INR 10,000/MWh) presents a clear arbitrage opportunity for storage. The seven-hour price cap on the night of 2-3 May, directly linked to the CSTPS outage, demonstrates how a single large plant trip can cascade into market-wide price spikes.

For policymakers: The CSTPS incident is not isolated. Our analysis of April 2026 data showed multiple large thermal units under outage across the country (Barh STPS, Mundra UMPP, Tuticorin TPS, etc.). The timing of this outage - entering the peak demand month of May - exacerbated system stress. Accelerating planned maintenance schedules outside summer months and ensuring coal supply to stressed plants are immediate priorities. The medium-term solution remains large-scale energy storage to provide buffer against sudden thermal outages.

Outlook for May: With CSTPS Unit 5 likely to remain offline for several days, Maharashtra will continue to face supply pressure. All-India peak demand is expected to remain above 210-220 GW. Evening price caps on IEX are likely to persist until substantial thermal capacity is restored or demand moderates.