How will global trade uncertainties, price volatility affect Indian ferro chrome industry in CY'26?

• Tight margins, shrinking exports impact ferro chrome production in CY'25
  
  
• CBAM threatens sustained access to the high-profit EU market
  
  
• With S. African supplies coming back online, prices may come under pressure
  
  

Morning Brief: Indias ferro chrome production dropped to 1.39 million tonnes (mnt) in CY'25. However, the growth outlook is based on sound stainless steel market fundamentals. India has entered a structured growth phase from a cyclic one and stainless steel demand in India will grow at 6-7% CAGR compared to global growth of 3-4%, said Suyash Trivedi, DGM- Sourcing and Supply Chain Management, Jindal Stainless, during a webinar hosted by BigMint recently.

Ferro chrome demand

JSL will increase consumption by 40% in the coming years with the companys capacity projected to increase to 4.2 mnt. The company is looking to focus on strengthening supply chain partnerships through long-term contracts and cost-effective sourcing. India will outpace global stainless steel demand due to spending in infra, rails, waterways, water transmission and green hydrogen. Indian stainless players are targeting long-term contracts for ferro chrome for volume commitments, blend optimisation and diversification of sources.

Stainless steel outlook is positive in India for CY'26, supporting ferro chrome consumption.

Ferro chrome production

CY'25 production declined due to plant shutdowns for maintenance as well as due to tight margins.

Siddharth Mishra, Head Marketing, FAMD, Tata Steel, said high carbon (60%) ferro chrome production declined in CY'25 due to tight margins. The annual average price dropped by INR 5,000/t. Many mills slashed production due to tightening margins. Others took routine maintenance shutdowns to avoid making losses. This was one of the reasons why production suffered.

Secondly, with the gap between Indian and Chinese import prices of ferro chrome closing in CY'24 and CY'25, exports to the main market, China, were no longer lucrative.

We have to understand that the Indian ferro chrome industry is an industry which is a net exporter of ferro chrome. Exports comprise about 50% of domestic production generally. Historically, if you see, 50% has been domestic consumption, and the rest, 50%, has always been exports. So there is an excess capacity, said Mishra.

In the event of the export market remaining muted, domestic production momentum naturally suffered.

In CY'26 production expected to be stable or improve slightly, similar to CY'24 levels. Expected production is around 1.46 mnt, can maybe touch 1.5 mnt, said Mishra.

Exports

Indias ferro chrome export potential remains positive in the coming years. However, in CY'25 weaker realisations in the Chinese market directly impacted Indias exports. China increased its domestic ferro chrome production by almost 200,000 t in CY'25, thereby reducing dependence on imports.

China accounts for 55% of global stainless steel production and consumes 11 mnt of ferro chrome annually. Therefore, it is very difficult for any other country or region to replace China in volume terms, said Mishra.

Also, production in South Africa is coming back online from March. Major Chinese stainless mills have stakes in South African smelters and when these come online, the supplies will all be directed towards China. Therefore, Indias export prospects might be affected.

South African smelters' supply of ferro chrome will be available 45 days after they come online in March which will impact overall trade flows.

Among the alternative geographies, Indonesia has emerged as a leading destination followed by the US, EU, Latam and other countries.

CBAM impact

CBAM has created many complexities that will affect trading with the EU. More than volumes, the EU was always a high realisation market for Indian exporters. Now, with CBAM, and the prospect of profits getting slashed due to taxes, the profitability part will be hugely affected.

According to estimates, under CBAM Indian exporters will have to bear a 10% hike in cost of exports, around 10-13 cents/lb which is expected to eat into their margins, said Mishra.

Uncertainty regarding declaration of emission values, very high default values set by the EC for Indian ferro chrome and verification of emission scores by the EC have all created great speculation and volatility in the market and will impact global trade.

Raw material sourcing

All the major Indian ferro chrome producers have backend integration and producers use a mix of their own grades and products. OMC has been offering more concentrates of late: in CY'24 OMC was offering 1,200 t per month. Now they are offering 6,500 t per month. Concentrates is a highly acceptable product in the market and OMC will be supplying more of it with grades going down.

Producers may have to revise grades lower going forward to 57-58% from 60% due to depletion of mined grades. In South Africa and China 55% is accepted as the benchmark, what they call charge chrome.

On the other hand, imports are also on the rise, especially of specialty alloys and grades. In CY'25 imports increased to 270,000 t.

Therefore, blend optimisation will depend on all of these factors and producers will likewise have to recalibrate their raw material sourcing.

Price outlook

The experts pointed out that Indias ferro chrome price outlook will remain rangebound in the coming days, and prices may actually decrease if supplies increase. Prices are expected to remain supported over the next 45 days following Chinas reopening after the CNY holidays.

After about two months, once South Africa resumes operations, prices may come under pressure.