Global steel, raw material prices show volatility in Mar'25 as US import tariffs kick in-BigMint analysis

• Turkish imported scrap offers surge on tight supply
  
  
• Chinese HRC prices dip amid growing protectionism
  
  
• Steel production cuts in China weigh on iron ore tags
  
  

Morning Brief: Global steel and raw material prices showed mixed trends in March 2025 (till 26 March), with President Trump's 25% tariffs on US steel imports setting off a global trade war which has influenced market dynamics in several segments.

BigMint goes behind the scenes.

Price overview

Hot-rolled coil (HRC) offers edged down in the three regions tracked, with Indian prices eroding the highest - by 2% - to settle at a monthly average of $495/tonne (t) FOB in March against $505/t in February, as per BigMint data.

Chinese HRC offers dropped by 1% m-o-m to $468/t, while Japan's were at $467/t in March compared to $468/t in February.

In longs, Turkish rebar tags improved by 1.2% to a monthly average of $570/t in March from $563/t in February, while Black Sea billets climbed up by 1.4% m-o-m to $439/t from $433/t over the same period.

All prices are on FOB basis.

On the raw materials side, Fe62% iron ore fines, CFR China, dropped by 4.7% to $102/t in March against $107/t last month. Premium hard coking coal (HCC) from Australia, CFR India, extended its continuous four-month-long decline, losing 5.5% m-o-m to $190/t in January against $201/t.

HMS (80:20) scrap, CFR Turkiye, recorded a robust 5.3% gain to $376/t from $357/t.

Factors impacting global steel, raw material prices in Mar'25

Iron ore prices fall on steel output cuts in China: Iron ore prices weakened, primarily due to speculation over the government's mandate to reduce steel production in a bid to address overcapacity and profitability issues. This followed US trade tariffs, which have raised concerns over China's ability to retain its global market share, given its continued economic slump.

Tepid demand from end-user segments, amid ample supply, was also a key factor, given that steel demand pick-up following the winter lull was slower than expected. However, hot metal output remained strong, which limited the price drop to some degree.

Coking coal tags plunge amid subdued demand: Coking coal prices declined m-o-m amid limited trades and subdued demand. Chinese buyers were uninterested given news of steel production cuts and a weaker recovery in downstream demand. Indian importers also showed limited interest amid relatively slow demand. Additionally, indexed Australian premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices fell from $187/t FOB on 28 February to $169/t on 27 March.

Turkish imported scrap prices surge amid firm supplier offers: Imported scrap prices in Turkiye surged by $19/t m-o-m, as suppliers quoted high offers and refused to reduce them amid supply concerns and rising freights. US domestic scrap prices shot up following the steel tariff implementation, with HMS increasing by $20/t to $405/t on the RMDAS ferrous scrap index in March. Additionally, a strong euro led to high European seller targets.

HRC export offers trend down amid growing protectionism: In March, Chinese mills continued to struggle with weak demand against robust production volumes, with prices staying on the lower side to boost sales volumes.

Notably, export opportunities grew scarcer amid increasing trade protectionism worldwide. Vietnam imposed anti-dumping (AD) duties of 19.38-27.83% on HRCs from China from 7 March, while Taiwan has also launched an AD investigation into flats imports from the Chinese mainland. Consequently, cautious sentiment prevailed.

Additionally, with the Middle East being dormant because of the Ramadan holidays, Chinese products found very few takers. However, a larger price drop was contained by announcements of immediate steel production cuts by certain Chinese mills. These are expected to help the country manage its steel overcapacity and strengthen profit margins.

In tandem, Japanese mills reduced HRC export offers to keep them competitive with Chinese values. Japan, which has also been grappling with lacklustre demand back home, also received a significant blow, with the European Commission recommending steep AD duties on certain HRC exporters.

India's offers declined too, amid subdued interest from buyers. Earlier in the month, mills continued to keep offers to the EU on pause amid the AD investigations, though they resumed eventually, as India was given a clean chit and exempted from duties. The Middle East, another key destination, witnessed weak activity amid Ramadan, while Vietnamese buyers were focused more on domestic material, despite no duties imposed on India.

Meanwhile, the EU also reduced the overall duty-free quarterly steel import quotas by 15%, with India's share declining by approximately 25%.

Black Sea billet tags up on stronger scrap: Russian steel billet producers raised their export offers, as higher scrap prices resulted in elevated raw material expenses. Currency volatility also contributed to the price hike, with the rouble witnessing a sharp appreciation in the middle of the month. This led producers to increase offers despite low bids; some even had to pause sales, given unsustainable prices.

Turkish rebar prices gain on rising scrap, falling lira: Despite sluggish sales, Turkish mills were compelled to raise rebar prices due to two key factors: (1) the surge in Turkish imported scrap prices and (2) a steep devaluation in the lira in the middle of the month, on the back of domestic political turmoil.

Consequently, Turkish mills - being heavily dependent on imported scrap - had to shell out more for scrap purchases. This pushed production costs higher for Turkish mills and prompted them to raise rebar prices.

Outlook

The global steel industry is in turmoil with increasing uncertainty over how to navigate trade barriers and steer clear of punitive measures. End-user steel demand remains dull in most regions, and the tariffs and duties may aim at reviving domestic markets in the short term. But US tariffs will have an inflationary impact on the domestic economy in the long run which is likely to impact consumer spending.

So, global steel demand is expected to remain subdued: World Steel Association data show that global steel output dropped 3.4% y-o-y in February to 144.7 mnt. Weak demand in major economies is expected to weigh on global steel production in Q2CY'25.