Global rice prices ease in Mar'26 on ample supply, weak demand

• Soft demand, harvest supply pressure drive 3% decline
  
  
• Rice benchmark bucks broader uptrend in cereals index
  
  

Global rice prices declined in March 2026, with the FAO All Rice Price Index (FARPI) falling by 3.0% m-o-m to around 100 points, reversing a marginal 0.4% uptick in February (103.2 points). The correction reflects a market weighed down by comfortable supply conditions and limited buying interest. Fresh harvest arrivals across key Asian exporters increased exportable availability, while subdued demand from major importing regions kept trading activity muted.

Export quotations decline across origins

Price pressure was evident across all major rice categories, with benchmark export quotations easing across key Asian origins during March. Indian 5% broken white rice was assessed at around $345-350/tonne (t), reflecting continued weakness amid subdued buying interest and ample exportable supplies. Vietnamese 5% broken rice was quoted at $450-455/t at the start of the month, before easing toward $440-445/t by late March as demand remained cautious. Thai 5% broken rice declined from about $381-385/t in early March to $369-373/t toward the end of the month, pressured by weak enquiries and increased competition.

Fragrant rice also softened, with Thai Hom Mali 92% easing from around $1,110-1,115/t to near $1,085-1,091/t over the course of March, as premium demand slowed. The broader decline across segments was reinforced by currency depreciation in key exporting countries and persistent buyer resistance, keeping dollar-denominated quotations under pressure despite comfortable supply conditions.

Rice lags broader cereals trend

In contrast, the FAO Cereal Price Index rose by 1.5% m-o-m in March, driven by gains in wheat and maize. Rice remained the only major cereal to register a decline, acting as a drag on the overall index and highlighting relatively balanced fundamentals in the global rice market.

Outlook remains subdued

Near-term sentiment remains weak, with ample inventories and steady arrivals likely to cap any upside. A sustained recovery in prices will depend on stronger import demand or supply-side disruptions in upcoming crop cycles.