Stable supply, softer demand and Bangladesh factor to reshape global rice market outlook in 2025-26

• Global production holds steady, stocks rise
  
  
• Bangladesh emerges as key importer despite self-sufficiency
  
  

The global rice market in marketing year (MY) 2025/26 is characterized by a broadly stable supply outlook, moderating demand, and increasingly competitive trade flows. Global production remains largely unchanged m-o-m, with higher output in Thailand offsetting declines in Philippines and Taiwan. This balance reflects a well-supplied market, limiting upside risks to prices.

At the same time, global trade is projected lower as exports from Pakistan and the United States decline under pressure from competitively priced Asian cargoes. The shift underscores intensifying price competition, particularly across bulk non-basmati segments.

Consumption slowdown, rising inventories

Global consumption has been revised downward, led by weaker demand across the Middle East and East Asia. While rice demand remains structurally resilient, short-term macroeconomic pressures and substitution effects are weighing on offtake.

At the same time, global ending stocks are forecast higher, supported by accumulation in key markets including Iran, Pakistan, Thailand, and Japan. The build-up in inventories reflects both slower consumption and proactive stockpiling, reinforcing a relatively comfortable global balance sheet.

Price trends show widening regional divergence

Price movements since the March WASDE release highlight a clear divergence between Asian and Western Hemisphere markets. US long-grain quotes remain steady at $534/t, while Uruguay prices have surged to $504/t due to tighter exportable supplies following a delayed harvest and smaller crop.

In contrast, Asian markets are under pressure. Thai 5% broken rice prices have softened to $382/t due to currency depreciation and weaker demand. Indian quotes have declined to $367/t amid ample supplies, maintaining India's strong competitiveness in global markets. Pakistani prices have eased further to $351/t.

Vietnam is the only major Asian country bucking the trend, with prices rising to $367/t, supported by firm demand from African and Southeast Asian buyers. This divergence highlights the growing importance of demand-led pricing within Asia.

Bangladesh: High production, yet rising imports

Against this global backdrop, Bangladesh presents a distinct market dynamic combining near self-sufficiency with rising import dependence driven by price stabilization needs. For MY 2025/26, Bangladesh's rice production is estimated at around 37.5-37.7 million tonnes (mnt), supported by favorable weather, steady acreage, and strong performance across the boro, aman, and aus seasons. Despite this robust output, domestic consumption is projected higher at approximately 38.5 mnt, reflecting population growth and rice's status as the primary staple.

This structural gap, although modest, is amplified by market dynamics. Domestic rice prices reached record levels in 2025, prompting the government to actively intervene through imports and tariff adjustments. Imports are forecast at around 1.2 mnt in MY 2025/26, with both public and private sector participation increasing significantly. In the first half of the marketing year alone, Bangladesh imported close to 670,000 t, reflecting aggressive procurement to cool domestic prices. The government has reduced import duties substantially to facilitate inflows, while also issuing permits to private traders.

Stocks, procurement, and policy intervention

Bangladesh's rice policy remains heavily intervention-driven. Government procurement from domestic farmers continues alongside imports to rebuild public stocks. As of December 2025, public rice stocks stood at approximately 1.33 mnt, significantly higher y-o-y. Ending stocks for MY 2025/26 are projected at around 1.88 mnt, reflecting both a strong aman harvest and continued imports. This stock build-up is aimed at enhancing food security and mitigating price volatility in a market highly sensitive to supply disruptions.

Additionally, non-food usage of rice is notable. Around 3.5 mnt are estimated to be used annually in animal feed at the household level, alongside growing industrial usage, indicating a broader demand base beyond direct consumption.

Price competitiveness drives flows

Bangladesh's re-entry into the import market has important implications for global trade flows. As a price-sensitive buyer, it is likely to source primarily from low-cost Asian origins, particularly India, Vietnam, and Pakistan. The widening price gap between Asian and Western Hemisphere exporters further reinforces this trend. With Asian prices remaining significantly lower, buyers such as Bangladesh are expected to continue favoring these origins, intensifying competition among exporters.

Outlook

The global rice market in MY 2025/26 is expected to remain well supplied, with stable production and rising stocks offsetting weaker consumption and trade. However, demand will increasingly be shaped by price-sensitive importers like Bangladesh, where government intervention plays a decisive role.

While no immediate supply shocks are evident, the market is becoming more fragmented, with regional price divergence and policy-driven trade flows defining the outlook. Export competitiveness, rather than supply constraints, will remain the key driver of global rice trade in the coming months.