Global iron ore exports rise marginally in Jan-Sep'25 despite 3% drop in Chinese steel production

• Total shipments rise just 0.25% y-o-y to 1,210 mnt in 9MCY'25
  
  
• Australia records marginal decline in export shipments
  
  
• Brazil, South Africa ramp up exports on stable China demand
  
  

Morning Brief: Global iron ore exports by the major supplying countries edged up slightly in January-September 2025 (9MCY'25) despite the downtrend in world steel production. Global iron ore exports increased by just 0.25% y-o-y to 1,210 million tonnes (mnt) during the period, as per latest BigMint data.

Global crude steel production in 9MCY'25 declined marginally by 1.6% y-o-y to 1,373 mnt. However, iron ore exports did not decline due to relatively stable sourcing by China which has a share of roughly 75% in global seaborne trade in the commodity.

Among the front-ranking exporters, Australia saw a marginal decline in volumes, while Indian shipments fell sharply y-o-y. However, Brazil and South Africa witnessed growth in exports.

Global trade highlights in 9MCY'25

China's imports remain stable: China's iron ore imports totalled 917.69 mnt during January-September, a marginal decrease of 0.06%, while its crude steel production during the period fell by 2.9% y-o-y. The stable performance highlights how strong global supply and resilient mill operations have balanced out domestic demand weakness and policy-driven output controls.

Major producers in Australia and Brazil maintained elevated export levels, capitalising on prices holding above $100/t since July. Seasonal demand expectations boosted restocking by Chinese mills ahead of the traditional autumn construction period, aided by better margins and a modest rebound in infrastructure orders. US-China trade tensions and tighter export controls prompted early stockpiling as a precaution. Plus, Chinese steel exports, too, remained high - increasing, for example, by nearly 9.2% y-o-y in 9MCY'25.

Australia's exports drop slightly: Australian iron ore export volumes were recorded at around 645 mnt during the review period, a negligible 0.07% drop y-o-y. Major miners reported a drop in shipments, especially in Q3. BHP's iron ore sales declined by 8% q-o-q to 70.6 mnt in Q3CY'25 against 76.7 mnt in Q2 even as production dropped 9% during the quarter. Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) delivered shipments of 49.7 mnt in Q3, down 10% against 55.2 mnt in Q2.

However, Rio Tinto's production remained stable while sales edged up 6% in Q3. Most of the Australian iron ore majors focused on completing rail and other infrastructure works. Grade depletion in the Pilbara remains a pressing concern.

Exports by Brazil up 5% y-o-y: Brazilian seaborne iron ore supply rebounded in the June quarter after weather disruptions earlier in the year. Vale recorded total iron ore production of 94.4 mnt in Q3CY'25, up sharply by 12.9% from 83.6 mnt in Q2.The sharp increase in production, driven by the ramp-up of new assets and improved operational reliability, lifted output to its highest level since 2018. Sales, too, increased by 11% in Q3. Vale accounts for over 80% of Brazilian exports. Vale has kept its iron ore production guidance unchanged at 325-335 mnt for CY'25.

SA exports strong despite drop in Anglo's production: South Africa recorded a 7% growth in exports of iron ore during the period on stable demand, mainly from China. However, Anglo American's output fell by 10% q-o-q in Q3. The quarterly dip was primarily due to lower production from Minas-Rio. Kumba's iron ore production remained largely stable.

Indian iron ore exports fall sharply: India recorded an over 40% decline in iron ore exports in 9MCY'25 due to weak Chinese demand, flat domestic iron ore production and tight availability situation in the domestic market. Recurrent talk of an impending export duty on iron ore kept market participants on the margins.

Iran raises exports by nearly 60%: Iran's total iron ore exports in 9MCY'25 was over 18 mnt. The major mining companies are ramping up their ore-concentrate capacity. According to Iran's Mines and Mining Industries Development and Renovation Organisation (IMIDRO), there was a 2% rise in iron ore concentrate production over certain periods in 2025.

Key mines such as Chadormalu, Gol-e-Gohar, and Sangan are pivotal to Iran's iron ore production, with nameplate capacities of 16 mnt, 7 mnt and 2.6 mnt, respectively. Iran's smaller and mid-level miners are being forced to explore export options, according to some accounts, due to their domestic financial distress and interminable delay in receiving payments.

US exports to China, Canada drop: Iron ore exports by the US have fallen primarily due to decreased exports to China and Canada owing to geopolitical tensions, tariffs, and trade disputes causing sharp swings in other commodities. However, the US' iron ore exports and production are not necessarily decreasing overall in 2025, as the market has seen some stabilisation.

Outlook

Three factors will shape global iron ore trade in the coming time - a) depletion in mainstream grades and surging demand for high-grade ore amid steel decarbonisation; b) increased supplies of comparatively high-grade ore from Africa, the Middle East and Brazil. Full operations of Simandou expected by 2027 with 160 mnt of high grade fines output likely, and c) higher global supplies affecting prices.

In the short term, global iron ore exports are expected to remain largely flat y-o-y in CY'25 despite the possibility of further cuts in Chinese steel production in November and December. A price above $100/t for mainstream ore is always an inducement for suppliers to keep exports at a high level. However, going forward, the iron ore price outlook is one of irreversible decline.