Global grain consumption set to outpace production in 2026/27; stocks expected to tighten

• Global grain output to fall 57 MMT in 2026/27 despite rising demand.
  
  
• Corn, wheat and rice stocks expected to tighten.
  
  

Global grain markets are expected to witness a tighter supply-demand balance in 2026/27 as consumption continues to grow despite lower production. Combined output of corn, wheat and rice is forecast to decline by 57 million metric tonnes (MMT), or around 2%, while strong demand across food, feed and industrial sectors is expected to draw down global inventories.

Corn feed demand remains resilient

Global corn feed and residual use is forecast to increase by slightly over 1% to 833 MMT, with China, India and Vietnam recording the largest year-on-year gains. India's corn production is forecast to grow by more than half compared with five years ago, supported by domestic ethanol targets and rising poultry feed demand. Vietnam is expected to register the strongest increase in corn imports as it continues to strengthen animal feed supplies. In contrast, feed and residual use in the United States is forecast to decline slightly in line with lower production and higher expected prices.

Wheat feed use declines

Global wheat feed and residual use is forecast to decline by nearly 4% from the previous year. Lower production across major exporters is expected to reduce feed use in the European Union, Kazakhstan, Argentina, Australia and China. Despite lower feed use, wheat consumption for food, seed and industrial purposes is expected to continue expanding, supported by population growth in South Asia and increasing demand across East and Southeast Asia.

Rice consumption supported by abundant Indian supplies

Global rice consumption is projected to increase in 2026/27, with abundant supplies in India serving as the primary driver. Within India, greater rice availability compared with wheat is expected to favour its use in public food security programmes for a growing population. Ample exportable supplies are also expected to reinforce India's position as the world's leading rice exporter with competitive prices. Outside South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to remain one of the fastest-growing rice-consuming regions, supported by population growth and a gradual shift from traditional staples towards affordable rice.

Industrial use of corn continues to expand

Food, seed and industrial (FSI) use across major grains is forecast to grow during 2026/27. While rice and wheat continue to be consumed primarily as food, industrial use of corn is expanding rapidly. FSI use of corn is expected to nearly double from five years ago in both Brazil and India, largely driven by increasing use of corn as a feedstock for ethanol production.

Global grain stocks forecast to decline

Large carry-in stocks are expected to supplement supplies at the beginning of the marketing year, but robust demand is projected to reduce ending inventories across major grains. Global corn stocks are forecast to decline by 7%, while wheat and rice stocks are each expected to fall by around 2% during 2026/27.

Outlook

The 2026/27 grain balance indicates that global consumption will continue to expand across food, feed and industrial sectors despite lower production. Abundant rice supplies in India are expected to support consumption and maintain the country's competitiveness in export markets, while declining inventories across corn, wheat and rice highlight a tighter global supply-demand balance heading into the new marketing year.