Global coking coal trade remains constrained in CY'25 as Asian demand softens - BigMint data
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- Global trade volumes show negligible growth y-o-y
- Trade flows redistribute across suppliers, driven by cost competitiveness
- Price pressure persists as supply exceeds demand
Morning Brief: Global coking coal trade in CY25 recorded negligible growth to 374 mnt as weak steel demand across key Asian markets limited import expansion, forcing a redistribution of trade flows rather than volume growth. Buyers shifted sourcing toward cost-competitive and logistically advantaged suppliers, with discounted cargoes and proximity to end-users reinforcing this transition.
As a result, higher-cost and long-haul exporters saw marginal volumes displaced, while regional and price-competitive suppliers gained share. Consequently, prices remained capped as abundant supply and weak demand constrained buying activity, with limited upside in the absence of stronger steel demand and recovery contingent on a sustained pickup in steel production across Asia.
Market share is increasingly shifting from traditional seaborne exporters toward cost-competitive and logistically advantaged suppliers in a demand-constrained system.
Trade in CY25 did not expand, indicating that incremental demand from the steel sector was insufficient to absorb available supply. With marginal demand unable to absorb incremental supply, additional volumes were displaced rather than consumed, forcing adjustments through redistribution. In this environment, buyers reallocated sourcing based on delivered cost and logistics efficiency.
This marks a shift from demand-led expansion to cost-driven competition, where trade flows are increasingly determined by cost competitiveness rather than growth in steel production.
Australia loses marginal share
Australian exports faced pressure as buyers reduced exposure to higher-cost seaborne supply. Elevated FOB costs and supply disruptions, combined with longer haul distances, reduced competitiveness in price-sensitive markets.
As a result, Australian cargoes were displaced at the margin, with buyers prioritising lower-cost alternatives where available, particularly as competing supply offered more competitive delivered pricing.
Mongolia displaces seaborne supply
Mongolian exports increased as land-based supply into China gained share due to lower transport costs and improved cross-border logistics.
This enabled Mongolian coal to displace higher-cost seaborne imports, reflecting a structural shift in sourcing driven by logistics advantage rather than demand growth.
Russia expands via discounted flows
Russian exports increased their presence across Asian markets, supported by discounted pricing and continued redirection of flows. Lower realised prices improved competitiveness, enabling Russian cargoes to penetrate multiple markets simultaneously.
Russian cargoes are increasingly acting as price-setting volumes in a surplus market, reinforcing price competition across suppliers
USA constrained by freight and demand
US coal exports declined as higher freight costs into Asia reduced competitiveness relative to regional suppliers, while weaker demand in Atlantic markets limited alternative outlets. This reflects a structural squeeze, with US exporters facing both weak Atlantic demand and freight disadvantages into Asia.
These constraints led to a loss of share in traditional markets, reinforcing the structural disadvantage of long-haul exporters in a cost-driven system.
Canada sees China-led growth
Canadian exports increased, supported by stronger shipments to China, while demand across Japan, South Korea, and India weakened.
This indicates selective demand rather than broad-based recovery, limiting overall impact on global trade flows.
India diversifies sourcing
India increased reliance on a broader supplier base, reflecting a diversification strategy aimed at optimising procurement costs and ensuring supply flexibility for its steel sector.
In a price-sensitive environment, buyers prioritised competitively priced cargoes, reinforcing competition across exporters.
China shifts sourcing toward cost and proximity
China continued to prioritise lower-cost and geographically proximate suppliers, reducing reliance on higher-priced seaborne imports. This reflects a shift away from higher-cost seaborne supply toward land-based and discounted alternatives.
This transition highlights the increasing role of logistics and cost optimisation in shaping trade flows.
Japan and Korea reflect weak steel demand
Imports into Japan and South Korea declined as subdued steel production reduced coking coal consumption.
This weakened demand limited their role in absorbing global supply, intensifying competition among exporters.
Freight reinforces cost advantage
Freight dynamics linked supply and demand by shaping delivered cost competitiveness. Lower freight rates improved the positioning of regional suppliers, while proximity to end markets reduced costs and delivery times.
This reinforced the shift toward geographically advantaged suppliers.
Prices capped by surplus supply
Coking coal prices remained under pressure through CY25 as available supply exceeded incremental demand from the steel sector. Competition among exporters intensified, particularly from cost-competitive and discounted cargoes, reducing pricing power across the market.
The persistence of surplus conditions prevented sustained price recovery.
Outlook
Trade flows are expected to remain driven by cost competitiveness, logistics efficiency, and supplier pricing strategies, with no clear catalyst for demand expansion in the near term. Suppliers with structural advantages are likely to continue gaining share, while higher-cost exporters may face continued displacement.
We expect prices to remain capped as long as supply exceeds demand growth, with recovery contingent on stronger consumption across key Asian markets.
