Global CO2 emissions may reach record high of 38.1 billion tonnes in 2025

• Remaining CO2 budget for 1.5 degree celcius scenario just 170 bnt
  
  
• China shows moderate emissions growth amid huge RE buildout
  
  
• Above-average monsoon limits India's emissions growth to just 1.4%
  
  

Morning Brief: The rapid growth in anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere poses an existential threat. Latest studies by the Global Carbon Project (GCP), a Global Research Project of Future Earth and a research partner of the World Climate Research Programme, present a grim reality. The 2025 Global Carbon Budget (GCB) projects 38.1 billion tonnes (bnt) of fossil carbon dioxide (CO) emissions this year which is a rise in global emissions of 1.1% in 2025. This is a record high.

Carbon budget

The GCB is updated annually, with complete data provided up to the previous year (2024), with projections of the current year (2025). The recently published report states: "The remaining carbon budget to limit global warming to 1.5 degree celcius is 'virtually exhausted' With no sign of the urgently needed decline of global emissions, the level of CO2 in the atmosphere and the dangerous impacts of global warming continue to increase."

At the current rate of emissions, the GCB estimates a one-in-two chance that four more years of current CO emissions would bring global warming to 1.5 degree celcius. "All such projections have a degree of uncertainty, but it's clear that the remaining carbon budget is running out fast," it notes in its latest report.

Four years are clearly insufficient to decarbonise the world's energy system. It seems inevitable that the 1.5 degree celcius target of the Paris agreement will be breached. "The remaining carbon budgets to limit warming to 1.7 degree celcius and 2 degree celcius above the 1850-1900 level are 525 gigatonnes of CO2 (GtCO2) (12 years at 2025 emissions levels) and 1055 GtCO2 (25 years), respectively."

Key findings of GCB report

• China's emissions in 2025 are projected to increase by 0.4% - growing more slowly than in recent years, due to a moderate growth in energy consumption combined with an extraordinary growth in renewable energy (RE).
  
  
• Emissions are projected to grow in the USA (+1.9%) and the European Union (0.4%) in 2025. Emissions in these regions have declined in recent years, but colder weather and other factors led to an increase in 2025.
  
  
• The projected rise in fossil CO2 emissions in 2025 is driven by all fuel types: coal +0.8%, oil +1%, natural gas +1.3%.
  
  
• The remaining carbon budget to limit global warming to 1.5 degree celcius is virtually exhausted. The remaining budget for 1.5 degree celcius is 170 billion tonnes of CO2, equivalent to four years at the 2025 emissions levels.
  
  
• The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is set to reach 425.7 ppm in 2025, 52% above pre-industrial levels.
  
  

Spotlight on India

In 2025, India's emissions are projected to increase by 1.4% - slower than recent trends. An early monsoon reduced cooling requirements in the hottest months. Combined with strong growth in renewables, this led to very low growth in coal consumption, notes the GCB report.

However, India is in a unique position as it has to balance between economic aspirations and sustainability. As the International Energy Agency (IEA) notes in its World Energy Outlook 2025: "In addition to boosting energy supply to meet fast-growing demand, India is tackling a variety of other energy-related challenges." These challenges include ensuring universal access to modern energy; reducing fossil fuel import dependence; improving the reliability of electricity supplies; reducing air pollution; and cutting GHG emissions.

Notably, around half of global coal demand is used for electricity generation in China, India and the Southeast Asian economies, and the outlook for coal depends to a great extent on their needs for electricity, whether the current momentum behind renewables is sustained, and whether gas can be priced competitively enough to make inroads.

Therefore, as the IEA has shown in its energy scenario modelling, if grid integration challenges are high and solar and wind deployment stagnates, coal demand will remain high and fall more slowly.

This is a scenario that India would desperately want to avert.