Global bunker prices mixed as easing crude and lower Middle East risk premiums weigh on market

• VLSFO under pressure, MGO & HSFO stay firm
  
  
• Easing crude prices weigh on bunker fuel market
  
  

Global bunker fuel prices showed a mixed trend in the week ended 3 July, as easing crude oil prices and improving supply conditions weighed on VLSFO values in Asia and the Middle East, while European prices firmed on regional demand. Although geopolitical risk premiums have moderated following improved conditions around the Middle East, marine fuel markets continue to reflect regional supply-demand imbalances.

Regional bunker markets

• Singapore: VLSFO prices stood at $665/metric tonne (mt) on 3 July, down $15/mt w-o-w, as easing crude oil prices and improved fuel availability weighed on bunker values. However, steady bunkering demand at the world's largest marine fuel hub helped limit sharper declines.
  
  
• Rotterdam: VLSFO prices stood at $587/mt, up $7/mt w-o-w, supported by firmer regional fuel oil demand and stable bunker supply fundamentals across Northwest Europe, despite softer crude prices.
  
  
• Fujairah: VLSFO prices fell sharply by $159/mt w-o-w to $727/mt, as geopolitical risk premiums eased following improved conditions around the Middle East, reducing the sharp supply concerns that had previously driven bunker prices higher. Despite the correction, prices remained above those in Singapore and Rotterdam.
  
  

Factors influencing bunker prices

• Brent crude futures drop w-o-w: Brent crude oil (September 2026 contract) declined by $1.04/barrel (bbl) w-o-w to $72.78/bbl on 3 July, pressured by expectations of ample global supply and softer demand outlook, which weighed on energy markets.
  
  
• WTI crude falls: WTI crude futures declined 0.65% w-o-w to $68.78/bbl on 4 July from $69.23/bbl a week earlier, as easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and expectations of another OPEC+ production increase for August weighed on prices.
  
  

Outlook

Bunker prices are expected to remain under downward pressure in the near term as easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the recovery of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz reduce supply risk premiums. Rising crude exports from the UAE, Iran, and Russia, coupled with improving shipping activity through the key energy corridor, have increased global oil availability and weighed on crude benchmarks.

While bunker prices are likely to track softer crude oil fundamentals, volatility cannot be ruled out as negotiations between the US and Iran continue and geopolitical developments around the Strait of Hormuz remain a key risk. Any renewed disruption to regional oil flows could quickly reverse the current bearish sentiment.