Global rice production to hit record 563.4 MMT in 2025/26; stocks rise to all-time high

• Global rice output seen at record 563.4 MMT in 2025/26, supported by higher production in key origins.
  
  
• Rice stocks may hit an all-time high of 219.8 MMT, keeping market fundamentals comfortable despite input-cost risks.
  
  

Global rice market fundamentals remain strongly supplied as the 2025/26 season progresses, with the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) raising its forecast for global rice production, utilisation, and ending stocks. Record output and expanding inventories are expected to keep the market broadly balanced, although rising fertiliser and energy costs are emerging as key risks for future production cycles.

Global rice production revised upward

FAO now forecasts global rice production at 563.4 million tonnes (milled basis) in the 2025/26 season, marking a 2.0% year-on-year increase and setting a new all-time high. The latest upward revision is largely driven by stronger-than-expected harvest results in Cambodia, particularly from the main crop, along with improved production estimates in Cte d'Ivoire and Mali. The increase reinforces expectations of ample global rice availability, supported by favourable weather conditions and expanded cultivation across several producing regions. The higher output comes at a time when major exporters such as India, Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan continue to maintain adequate supplies, contributing to overall market stability.

Rice utilisation reaches record levels

Global rice utilisation is also expected to expand significantly, with FAO projecting total usage at 555.1 million tonnes, up 2.6% year-on-year. The growth is being driven by both food consumption and non-food industrial demand, including rising use of rice for ethanol production and processing industries. Although the estimate was trimmed slightly from April, overall demand remains robust, reflecting continued population growth and diversified industrial applications. Strong consumption growth is helping absorb part of the expanding supply, preventing excessive market oversupply despite record production.

Rice stocks climb to historic peak

One of the most notable developments is the sharp increase in global rice reserves. FAO now expects world rice stocks to reach 219.8 million tonnes by the close of the 2025/26 marketing year, up 4.4% from the previous season and the highest level on record. The increase is largely attributed to higher expected carryover stocks in Cambodia, Japan, and the United States, alongside already elevated inventories in major exporting countries such as India.

International rice trade remains near record levels

Despite softer global prices and some regional trade disruptions, international rice trade in 2026 is forecast at 60 million tonnes, only slightly below the record levels seen in 2025. The outlook reflects continued strong import demand from Africa and Europe, along with recovering purchases from Latin America and the Caribbean. While trade volumes may decline marginally year-on-year, they are still expected to represent the second-highest annual rice trade on record. India's competitive export pricing and abundant availability are expected to remain key drivers of global trade flows.

Rising input costs remain a watchpoint

While current rice fundamentals remain broadly favourable, FAO cautions that rising energy and fertiliser costs could affect future crop economics. The effective disruption of the Strait of Hormuz has raised fertiliser prices sharply, increasing cultivation costs across major rice-producing countries. Higher input costs may discourage balanced fertiliser application and could eventually affect yield potential, especially during upcoming planting cycles.

Outlook

The global rice market enters the second half of 2026 with strong supply-side confidence, backed by record production, rising utilisation, and historically high stocks. However, market participants will closely monitor fertiliser inflation, weather risks, and geopolitical disruptions, as prolonged cost pressures could gradually shift the market narrative from surplus-driven stability to production-related concerns. For now, the global rice outlook remains comfortably supplied, keeping price upside limited in the near term.