Daily round-up: LME base metals prices recover; oil gains on shipping risks

• US copper demand may remain resilient despiteimport tariffs
  
  
• Global zinc surplus narrows in Apr'26 despite 9% rise in China output
  
  

Base metals on the London Metal Exchange (LME) traded mostly higher on 25 June 2026, with copper leading gains among major non-ferrous metals. Copper rose 1.40% d-o-d to $13,270/t, followed closely by aluminium, which increased 1.36% to $3,165/t. Zinc and nickel also edged higher by 0.38% and 0.04% to $3,435/t and $16,824/t, respectively, while lead remained unchanged at $1,913/t. The recovery in base metals prices was supported by a slight easing in the US dollar and bargain buying following the previous session's sharp correction.

On the inventory side, LME stocks continued to decline across all major base metals, reflecting tight physical availability. Copper inventories recorded the largest drawdown, falling 0.87% d-o-d to 341,925 t, followed by aluminium inventories, which declined 0.48% to 310,225 t. Lead, zinc, and nickel stocks also fell by 0.33%, 0.26%, and 0.25% to 299,650 t, 122,825 t, and 275,448 t, respectively. Continued inventory drawdowns, particularly in copper, indicate resilient underlying demand despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.

Domestic market overview

India's non-ferrous scrap market remained weak on 25 June amid subdued buying activity and continued correction in domestic prices. Aluminium tense scrap (loose), ex-Delhi, declined by INR 8,000/t, or 2.78% d-o-d, to INR 280,000/t, while ex-Chennai prices fell by INR 2,000/t, or 0.69%, to INR 290,000/t.

Meanwhile, copper armature scrap (Cu 99%), ex-Delhi, dropped by INR 18,000/t, or 1.49% d-o-d, to INR 1,190,000/t, reflecting cautious procurement by consumers despite the recovery in LME copper prices.

Oil prices rebound as renewed Hormuz tensions revive supply concerns

Global crude oil prices rebounded on 26 June 2026, with Brent crude rising 1.39% d-o-d to $73.71/bbl and WTI crude gaining 1.21% to $70.38/bbl. Natural gas prices also increased 1.11% to $3.28/MMBtu, while the US dollar index eased 0.10% to 101.40.

Oil prices recovered after the International Maritime Organization suspended its planned evacuation of stranded vessels following an attack on a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, reviving concerns over the security of one of the world's most critical energy shipping routes.

Although vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had recovered to 70 transits on Wednesday, the highest since 1 March, the latest attack highlighted the fragile nature of the US-Iran ceasefire. Iran also warned that vessels using routes outside its designated framework would not be guaranteed safe passage, reinforcing concerns over potential disruptions to crude exports and limiting the recent decline in oil prices.

Other updates

Indonesia lifts 2026 nickel mining quota, EU delays aluminium scrap export curbs

Indonesia is considering raising its 2026 nickel mining quota to 360 million tonnes (mnt) from 260 mnt to ease ore shortages, despite financial stress at PT Gunbuster Nickel Industry. Meanwhile, the European Commission has delayed restrictions on aluminium scrap exports until September 2026, while Brimstone and Century Aluminium signed an MoU to develop a domestic US aluminium supply chain.

In Chile, Anglo American and Codelco partnered to unlock $5 billion in value and add 2.7 mnt of copper production over the next 21 years, while China's central bank introduced overnight reverse repos to support short-term liquidity.

Chinese supplier expects US copper demand to withstand tariffs

Chinese copper processor Zhejiang Hailiang Co. expects US copper demand to remain resilient despite potential tariffs on refined copper imports. Its 90,000 t/year copper tube plant in Houston is operating near full capacity, supported by demand from the automotive, plumbing, and air-conditioning sectors. The company has also expanded production in Indonesia and Morocco to diversify its manufacturing base and reduce trade-related risks.

Zinc market surplus narrows despite rising Chinese output

Zinc prices remained under pressure due to a stronger US dollar and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. However, the global zinc market surplus narrowed to 26,500 t in April from 56,300 t in March, according to ILZSG, indicating improving market fundamentals.

Despite a 9.4% y-o-y increase in China's refined zinc production, supply concerns persist due to disruptions at Glencore's Kazzinc, Nexa's Cajamarquilla, and Boliden's Garpenberg operations, while SHFE zinc inventories declined 1.2% last week, reflecting stable demand.