Copper prices remain elevated despite global tensions: What lies ahead in the coming quarters?

• Copper prices continue trading above $13,500/t despite geopolitical and macroeconomic risks
  
  
• Tight mine supply and strong Chinese buying are limiting downside pressure in the market
  
  

Copper prices are expected to remain elevated through Q2 2026 into 2027, although volatility is likely to continue amid geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty, according to JP Morgan commodity research. The bank has projected LME copper prices to average $13,500/t in Q2 2026 before gradually easing toward $12,500/t in the fourth quarter of the year if global growth slows. The company's analysts currently also see the $11,10011,200/t range as an important medium-term support zone.

What factors are driving copper prices higher?

The biggest factor supporting copper prices remains tight global mine supply. Major disruptions at mines such as Grasberg Mine, the worlds second-largest copper mine with nearly 770,000 tpa capacity, have tightened concentrate availability globally after operational disruptions and force majeure conditions impacted output. Operational issues at Chiles Quebrada Blanca have further added pressure to the market.

At the same time, Chinas decision to restrict sulfuric acid exports from May 2026 may create additional pressure across copper supply chains, as nearly 15% of global copper production depends on sulfuric acid availability. TC/RCs also remain at historically weak levels, reflecting severe tightness in raw material supply for smelters.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also continue creating uncertainty around oil prices, freight movement, and global trade routes. Analysts estimate that every 10% increase in oil prices due to supply shocks could reduce global GDP growth by around 0.16%, indirectly impacting industrial metal demand.

Why are copper prices still trading near record highs?

LME copper is currently trading near $13,500/t, compared with around $12,000/t levels seen in mid-March and record highs above $14,500/t touched earlier this year. Over the last three months, the market has remained extremely volatile due to geopolitical tensions, tariff uncertainty, and changing Chinese demand patterns. However, despite macroeconomic risks, copper prices have corrected only modestly because physical supply conditions remain tight globally.

Another major support factor has been aggressive Chinese dip-buying activity. China, which accounts for nearly 60% of global copper demand, has actively purchased copper during price corrections as manufacturers replenished inventories after remaining cautious during earlier rallies. Improved industrial activity post-Lunar New Year, especially across manufacturing and infrastructure sectors, also supported stronger copper consumption in recent months.

Market participants also stated that the continuing disruption at Grasberg has kept sentiment firm across the concentrate market, preventing sharper corrections in copper prices despite weak macroeconomic sentiment globally. Mining giant Glencore remains structurally bullish on copper demand over the longer term, expecting prices to remain strong due to rising electrification demand and limited mine supply growth. Market participants expect copper to continue trading above long-term historical averages as demand from EVs, renewable energy, power grids, and AI-led data centres continue rising globally.

Key points ahead of BigMint India Non-Ferrous Week 2026:

Will tightening mine supply keep copper prices elevated through 2027?

Can Chinese demand continue offsetting macroeconomic and geopolitical risks?

How will Middle East tensions reshape global copper trade flows and supply chains?

Join industry leaders for deeper discussions at BigMint India Non-Ferrous Week 2026 on 910 June in Mumbai.