China weekly: Steel prices rose w-o-w as raw material costs fluctuate

• Gradually improving demand supporting prices
  
  
• Steel inventories at CISA mills reached 18.63 mnt in mid-April
  
  

China's steel prices increased in the week ended 24 April 2026, with domestic hot-rolled coil (HRC) and rebar prices rising w-o-w. Raw materials prices, including iron ore, billet, met coke prices rose, while coking coal prices remained stable w-o-w.

The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) reported that total steel inventories at key Chinese enterprises stood at 18.63 million tonnes (mnt) in mid-April 2026 (11-20 April), up by 1.12 mnt or 6.4% from 17.51 mnt in early April 2026.

On a monthly basis, inventories increased by 0.72 mnt or 4% from 17.91 mnt in mid-March, and were also 1.92 mnt or 11.5% higher y-o-y compared with 16.71 mnt in mid-April 2025.

1.Iron ore spot prices edge up w-o-w: Iron ore fines benchmark prices for Fe 61% rose by $1/t w-o-w to $108/dmt CFR China on 24 Apr'26. Trading remained moderate across primary and secondary markets, as participants stayed cautious amid concerns over import margins and awaited clarity on portside curbs. Prices were supported by improved ferrous sentiment and pre-holiday restocking ahead of Labour Day, though tight mill margins continued to cap demand for higher-grade products.

a) Spot pellet premium stable w-o-w: Spot pellet premium for Fe 65% grade pelletheld firm at $17.35/t CFR China on 22 Apr.

b) Spot lump premium edges up w-o-w: Spot lump premium rose marginally w-o-w to $0.1795/dmtu on 24 Apr.

2. Chinese firm momentum offsets tepid seaborne sentiment in coking coal market: China's met coke market remains firm, with the second round of price hikes (+50-55 yuan/t) fully implemented and a third increase expected soon. Coke prices rose by 55 yuan/t across key regions, supported by stable supply, active pre-holiday restocking, and declining inventories. Strong blast furnace operations continue to drive demand, while portside prices remain weak and freight rates stable.

Seaborne Australian PHCC prices remained steady at $231/t FOB on 24 Apr'26, with BigMint's index unchanged at $253/t CNF Paradip. Muted buying interest, expectations of softer prices, and unchanged market fundamentals kept both bids and offers range-bound

3. Billet prices rise w-o-w on improved demand; sentiment supported by restocking and firm costs: Chinese billet prices increased by RMB 30/t ($4/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,020/t ($442/t) by 24 April, supported by improving domestic demand, stronger speculative buying, and firm raw material costs, particularly coke following accepted price hikes.

Early in the week, prices gained momentum amid improving consumption across regions and restocking ahead of the May Day holidays, while multiple rounds of local price hikes reinforced market sentiment. However, gains moderated towards the end of the week, with prices stabilising as mills maintained current levels and market activity turned cautious ahead of the holiday period.

Export billet prices were heard at $465-475/t FOB China, up by around $510/t w-o-w, supported by firmer domestic prices and improved deal activity. However, export sentiment remained cautious, with mills increasingly prioritising domestic sales amid better local demand and potential policy uncertainties around semi-finished steel exports.

4. Domestic HRC prices surge w-o-w: Chinese HRC prices stood at around RMB 3,200/t ($468/t) as on 24 April rising by RMB 40/t ($6/t) w-o-w from RMB 3,160/t ($462/t) a week ago. Furthermore, SHFE HRC futures (October 2026 contract), also increased by RMB 71/t ($10/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,394/t ($496/t) from RMB 3,323/t ($486/t) a week earlier. Meanwhile, China's HRC export offers remained stable at around $505/t FOB a week earlier.

Market sentiment in the domestic HRC segment remained positive this week, supported by strong macro cues, the rapid rollout of government funding has strengthened confidence, with accelerated allocation to key infrastructure projects outpacing last year. This faster disbursement has boosted expectations for steel demand and supported overall market sentiment. However, higher prices reduced buyer interest and speculative activity, leading to more cautious participation despite the overall firm market trend.

5. Rebar prices increased w-o-w: Rebar prices in China stood at around RMB 3,320 ($486/t) as on 24 April increased by RMB 100/t ($15/t) w-o-w compared with RMB 3,220/t ($471/t) in the previous week. Furthermore, SHFE Rebar futures (October 2026 contract), rose by RMB 57/t ($8/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,190/t ($467/t) as on 24 April from RMB 3,133/t ($458/t) a week earlier.

However, China's Shagang Steel has reduced its long steel prices for late-Apr'26 sales, marking the first price revision in seven months, that is, since 11 Sep'25. Rebar prices were reduced by RMB 100/t ($15/t), while coiled rebars and wire rods were cut by RMB 80/t ($12/t). Revised prices are as follows:

Rebars (16-25 mm): RMB 3,350/t ($491/t)

Coiled rebars (8-10 mm): RMB 3,480/t ($510/t)

Wire rods (6-10 mm): RMB 3,390/t ($497/t)

Outlook

China's steel market reflects cautious resilience, with rising costs offering support while demand remains uneven. Construction activity helps reduce stocks, yet weak demand for flat steel slows overall recovery. Buyers stay careful with cautious approach. The market edges upward gently, waiting for stronger demand to restore balance and confidence.