China: Steel inventories at key CISA mills decline by 8% in late-Jan'26

• Average daily crude steel output falls 2% since mid-Jan'26
  
  
• Inventory drawdown signals controlled supply conditions
  
  

According to the China Iron and Steel Association, the total steel inventory at key Chinese industries stood at 14.71 million tonnes (mnt) in late-January 2026 (21-31 January), down by 1.42 mnt or 8.8% compared to 16.13 mnt in mid-January. However, on a m-o-m basis, inventory levels increased by 570,000 tonnes (t) or 4.0% from 14.14 mnt in late December 2025. Moreover, inventories decreased by 640,000 t or 4.2% y-o-y against 15.35 mnt a year ago.

Production volume

The average daily crude steel output of CISA-affiliated mills reached 1.94 mnt in late-January, down by 2.2% from 1.98 mnt in mid-January 2026. Moreover, crude steel output fell by 8.3% y-o-y.

The average daily finished steel output stood at 1.94 mnt in late-January 2026, up by 3.2% from 1.87 mnt in mid-January 2026. However, the output declined by 4.3% on a y-o-y basis.

The average daily pig iron output was around 1.74 mnt in late-January 2026, down by 3% from 1.79 mnt in mid-January 2026. Furthermore, the production declined by 8.3% y-o-y.

Outlook

China's steel market is expected to remain cautiously stable in the coming week, as demand remains weak amid the Lunar New Year slowdown across the region. However, the decline in late-January inventories at key CISA millspoints to controlled supply, which is likely to provide some support to prices. At the same time, m-o-m inventory increases and broad y-o-y declines highlight subdued underlying demand, pointing to limited upside unless construction activity and end-user consumption improve.