China: Steel exports decline by 10% y-o-y in Jan-Mar'26

• Exports surge m-o-m in Mar'26, but outlook remains cautious
  
  
• Trade barriers, geopolitical issues to weigh on near-term exports
  
  

China's steel exports stood at around 24.717 million tonnes (mnt) during January-March 2026, down by 9.9% y-o-y, according to data from the General Administration of Customs.

Additionally, exports in March 2026 reached 9.135 mnt, up by 16.5% from around 7.84 mnt in February 2026. However, the same was 12.6% lower y-o-y compared with the same period last year.

What influenced export trends in Jan-Mar'26?

China's steel exports saw a clear y-o-y decline in the first quarter of 2026, shaped by a mix of policy changes and softer market conditions. The rollout of the new export licensing system from 1 January 2026 initially slowed shipment activity, creating short-term disruptions for exporters.Once the initial disruptions began to ease, exporters began processing pending orders, which normalised shipment flows.

Seasonal demand following Chinese exporters' absence during the Lunar New Year holidays supported export activity, while mills also increased overseas allocations to manage elevated inventories amid a slow recovery in the domestic market.

Despite the m-o-m improvement, the overall export outlook remains cautious, with external demand conditions and trade-related uncertainties continuing to influence shipment trends.

Outlook

BigMint expects China's steel exports to fall m-o-m in April and remain lower y-o-y amid persistent trade barriers, geopolitical disruptions (especially linked to the US-Iran conflict), and subdued global demand. However, competitive pricing and ongoing structural adjustments are likely to provide some support to export volumes.