China records stronger-than-expected industrial growth in Jan-Mar'26 but steel production lags

• Crude steel output falls 5% y-o-y on weak demand, pollution curbs
  
  
• Steel exports decline 10% as new licensing system takes effect
  
  
• Infrastructure investment grows 9%, manufacturing rises slower at 4%
  
  

Morning Brief: China's industrial economy showed resilience in the first quarter of 2026 (Q1CY'26), with value-added industrial output rising 6.1% y-o-y, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous quarter. The expansion was driven by strong growth in high-tech and advanced manufacturing sectors, even as policymakers maintained a cautious stance, setting a full-year GDP growth target of 4.5-5%, the lowest since 1991.

However, the steel sector remained under pressure despite headline GDP growth of around 5% in Q1 beating market expectations. Crude steel output and exports declined, while most end-use segments, except infrastructure, contracted y-o-y. This divergence underscores a broader trend of stable macro growth alongside a structurally weaker steel sector despite the transition towards a manufacturing-led economy.

Notably, in CY'25, manufacturing (51% share) overtook construction (49%) for the first time as the primary driver of Chinese steel consumption.

Highlights of China's steel industry dynamics in Q1CY'26

Steel mills continue to reduce crude steel production: China's crude steel production fell 4.6% y-o-y, with the pace of decline accelerating from a 3.6% drop in January-February. The sharper contraction reflects weak domestic demand, softer exports, and pollution-driven production curbs in early March, ahead of the Two Sessions meeting.

Thinner margins and inventory overhang also discouraged mills from ramping up production despite seasonal demand recovery in March.

Only around 41% of mills were profitable in March, down from 53% a year earlier, based on Mysteel data cited by Reuters. Additionally, steel inventories at key mills tracked by the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) increased by 5.9% to about 17.51 million tonnes (mnt) in the first 10 days of April from late March, indicating persistent oversupply.

Steel exports fall as new licensing system curbs low-priced supply: China's steel exports fell 9.9% y-o-y in Q1CY'26, reversing the uptrend seen in CY'25.

The introduction of a new export licensing system from 1 January increased compliance costs and administrative requirements, impacting low-value-added export supply and lifting prices. This reduced exporters' competitiveness, especially in cost-sensitive regions.

The escalation of the US-Iran conflict disrupted trade routes through the Strait of Hormuz, raising freights and insurance costs. As a result, several Chinese exporters suspended offers to the Middle East, which accounted for around 15-16% of China's steel exports in 2025.

However, the 24.7 mnt exported remains at a high level, close to the 25.8 mnt shipped in Q1CY'24.

Iron ore imports surgeon improved supply: China's iron ore imports increased 10.5% y-o-y. Higher export volumes from key suppliers, particularly Australia, were a primary driver of increased imports, with there being fewer weather-related disruptions compared to last year, when cyclones had affected loading operations. BigMint data shows that Australia exported around 178 mnt of iron ore and pellets to China in January-March 2026 from 160 mnt a year earlier.

Restocking activity ahead of a seasonal demand recovery in March-April also drove the increase, even as underlying steel demand remained weak Average daily hot metal output, a proxy for iron ore demand, increased by 1.2% y-o-y in January-February, according to Mysteel, though it subsequently weakened in early March amid pollution-related curbs on steel production.

Coal production, imports inch up: China's coal and lignite imports rose 1.2% y-o-y, while domestic production was marginally higher y-o-y, supported by continued policy emphasis on energy security.

Coal-fired power output rose 4.4% y-o-y in Q1CY'26 as wind and nuclear-based generation declined.

Imports rose sharply by 26% m-o-m in March, driven by improved arbitrage and opportunistic restocking activity. This also aligned with preparations for peak summer demand and logistical constraints such as a scheduled Daqin railway maintenance from 1 April.

Automobile production declines faster than sales: China's automobile sales declined by 5.6% in Q1CY'26, while production fell by a sharper 6.9%, as domestic demand weakened and policy support tapered off. Domestic auto sales dropped 20.3% y-o-y to 4.82 million units, though a 56.7% surge in exports (2.23 million units) narrowed the y-o-y decline in total sales volumes.

Notably, the transition of the new energy vehicle (NEV) purchase tax from full exemption to a 50% reduction reduced affordability, particularly for price-sensitive buyers. This led to NEV sales falling 23.8% y-o-y in the first quarter. However, weak domestic demand for NEVs was partly offset by a doubling of export volumes.

Uncertainty regarding income expectations and rising fuel prices linked to Middle East tensions also discouraged buyers.

Meanwhile, with elevated dealer inventories and price wars going on, automakers were forced to reduce production.

Manufacturing investment growth accelerates but remains lowery-o-y: Manufacturing investment increased 4.1% y-o-y in Q1, up from the 0.6% recorded for the full CY'25. However, it was much slower than the 9.1% of Q1CY'25.

The growth was driven primarily by emerging sectors (as per the governments focus on "new productive forces") such as equipment and high-tech manufacturing. In terms of products, output of 3D printing devices, lithium-ion batteries, and industrial robots recorded the strongest momentum.

China's official purchasing managers' index climbed up to 50.4 points in March after two months of contraction. The expansion was attributed to businesses resuming and accelerating operations after the Lunar New Year holidays in February.

Infrastructure investment growth strengthens: Infrastructure investment rose 8.9% y-o-y compared to the full-year 2.2% in CY'25 and 5.8% in Q1CY'25.

Mao Shengyong, deputy head of China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), said that with 2026 marking the start of the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the government has accelerated the rollout of major projects and increased spending on new infrastructure, supporting stronger growth in infrastructure investment.

Real estate remains in de-growth mode: Real estate investment decreased by 11.2% y-o-y in Q1CY'26, while total construction area fell 11.7%. New construction starts decreased by 20.3% y-o-y.

As per a SteelOrbis report citing the China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute, in CY'25, steel consumption from construction shrank by 13%, with the pace expected to slow to 4% in CY'26, likely supported by government initiatives to stabilise the sector.

Outlook

Sluggish momentum is set to continue in China's steel industry due to the continued contraction in the real estate sector. Although infrastructure and manufacturing investment increased, the scale of this growth is insufficient to offset the downturn in property-led demand and the emerging weakness in automobile production. Consequently, BigMint expects China's crude steel production to remain controlled amid weak margins and regulatory pressures.