China: HRC holds firm in Apr'26 while rebar prices rise as supply tightens

• Rebar prices rise on supply cuts and improving construction activity
  
  
• HRC demand absorbs supply as inventories decline
  
  
• Momentum weakens as holidays approach and transactions slow
  
  

Morning Brief: Chinese hot-rolled coil (HRC) and rebar prices recorded varying price movements in April 2026. Tangshan HRC prices increased marginally m-o-m to RMB 3,392/t ($498/t), while rebar prices rose to RMB 3,172/t ($466/t) from RMB 3,125/t ($463/t) in March. The movement reflects improving construction activity supporting rebar, while HRC remained supported as demand absorbed available supply. Prices continue to sit near multi-year lows, indicating stabilisation rather than recovery.

Snapshots of HRC, rebar price movements in Apr'26

HRC prices supported but transaction momentum slows

HRC prices saw limited movement in April, with only a marginal increase from March levels. Output increased slightly during the month, while inventories at mills and in the market continued to decline. This indicates that demand has been sufficient to absorb available supply, easing earlier imbalances.

Although supply remains adequate, the absence of oversupply is supporting prices. However, this reflects balance rather than demand strength, as transaction growth slowed through the month and downstream sectors continued to procure cautiously on a need-based basis.

As a result, prices held firm, but upward movement remains constrained by the lack of stronger demand momentum.

Supply cuts support rebar but demand wilts

Rebar prices increased m-o-m in April, supported by supply-side adjustments and improving construction activity. Prices rose from RMB 3,125/t in March to RMB 3,172/t.

Supply softened slightly as mills adjusted output due to profitability pressures and environmental constraints, tightening availability and supporting prices in the early part of the month. At the same time, demand improved with policy support and faster project restarts, boosting construction activity.

However, while prices have risen, the improvement in demand remains uneven. With holidays nearing and construction activity slowing, market momentum and new orders have started to weaken gradually. Buying has remained cautious, and resistance to higher prices has become more visible toward the end of the month. As a result, while prices increased, the underlying demand is not strong enough to sustain further gains.

Outlook

We expect HRC and rebar prices to record limited movement in the near term, with no strong drivers on either side. For HRC, declining inventories and continued supply absorption are providing support, but slower transaction activity and cautious downstream demand are preventing further price increases.

For rebar, supply-side discipline and policy-led construction activity are supporting prices, but the impact is already fading as seasonal slowdown and weaker order flows set in.

Overall, the market is stabilising at relatively low price levels, with supply adjustments preventing further declines, while demand remains insufficient to drive a sustained uptrend.