China: Crude steel output falls 0.7% y-o-y in Aug'25

• Crude steel output drops 2.8% m-o-m in Jan-Aug'25
  
  
• Lifting of output curbs may boost production volumes
  
  

Chinas crude steel production in August 2025 inched down by 0.7% y-o-y to 77.37 million tonnes (mnt) against 77.92 mnt a year ago, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

Moreover, on a m-o-m basis, crude steel production decreased by 2.8% as compared to 79.66 mnt last month.

In January-August 2025, the country produced around 671.81 mnt of crude steel, down by 2.8% y-o-y compared to the corresponding period last year (CPLY).

Factors affecting output

1. Production curbs restrict output: Mills in the major steel-making hub of Tangshan were forced to limit production to ensure clean air during the military parade in the capital on 3 September. This resulted in a decline in output by major producers; furthermore, negative profitability forced some electric arc furnaces operating on scrap metal to cut production during the month.

2. Construction segment a mixed bag: Steel demand from China's construction segment showed some stability in August 2025 but continued to be weighed down by the seasonal weakness. The launch of new projects, with planned buying volumes rising, provided some relief to the steel producers. However, consumption gains were limited due to typical seasonal weakness in August, including high temperatures and frequent heavy rains affecting outdoor construction activities during the month.

Outlook

Production volumes are expected to rise gradually in the near future, as output curbs have been lifted. Moreover, an improvement in consumption by the real estate and infrastructure segments will be pivotal for demand generation. However, the slow recovery in the real estate segment continues to cast a shadow on steel demand.