China: Coal and lignite imports fall 8% y-o-y in May'26; marginal m-o-m uptick observed

• Imports fall y-o-y, marginal m-o-m rise
  
  
• Indonesia policy uncertainty weighs on buying
  
  

China's coal and lignite imports declined 8% year-on-year to 33.27 million tonnes (mnt) in May, according to customs data released on Tuesday, reflecting softer buying trends amid evolving market dynamics. On a monthly basis, imports recorded a marginal increase of 1% compared to 33.1 mnt in April, indicating limited recovery in seaborne procurement. For the January-May'26 period, total coal imports stood at 182.62 mnt, down 3.2% year-on-year, highlighting subdued cumulative demand in the first five months of the year.

Market dynamics

Market participants attributed the cautious import trend to ongoing uncertainties surrounding Indonesia's proposed export policy changes. Indonesia, China's largest coal supplier, recently announced plans to route all commodity exports, including coal, through a state-owned entity.

While the policy is set to take effect from1 June 2026, has created short-term operational uncertainty during the transition phase. While aimed at enhancing pricing transparency and compliance, exporters have remained cautious in offering fresh cargoes pending implementation clarity, tightening spot availability and providing support to coal prices.

Chinese traders indicated a wait-and-watch approach, seeking clarity on regulatory details before committing to fresh procurement, which has weighed on near-term import activity.

Outlook

Over the next month, import trends will hinge on policy clarity from Indonesia, price movements, and domestic demand recovery across sectors. We also expect market participants to closely monitor regulatory developments in the region.