Bulk coal freights to India remain volatile amid supply overhang, patchy demand

• Ample tonnage and cautious demand keep freight under pressure
  
  
• Bunker volatility and geopolitical risks keep sentiment cautious
  
  

Dry bulk coal freight rates to India were volatile in the week ended 10 April, as ample vessel availability and cautious demand kept pressure on the market, while steady Pacific activity offered limited support. Meanwhile, the market is looking for a correction in bunker prices, sources said.

Sentiment reflected a mismatch between charterer expectations and owner resistance. "Traders are asking for discounts, but not really getting the sentiment from owners/operators yet -- maybe next week," a ship broker said.

A charterer said, "Very few vessels are willing to go to west coast India, while Pacific and east coast India business remains smooth. Owners have increased their hire."

An Indonesian coal trader said, "We are working strictly on a tonnage basis -- no one is taking risks without vessel cover, leading to varied fixing levels."

Another trader said, "Freights are reducing, but very slowly. Vessels are getting fixed at higher hire rates -- let's hope freights reduce."

Route-wise updates

Market highlights

• Bunker prices decline w-o-w: Bunker prices fell by $124.5/t w-o-w to $765.5/t on 10 April, amid softer crude prices and improved supply across key hubs.
  
  
• Baltic index rises w-o-w: The Baltic Index increased by 95 points w-o-w to 2,161 on 9 April, supported by gains in Panamax, which rose by 58 points to 1,842, and Supramax, which edged up by 69 points to 1,293, indicating improved momentum in dry bulk activity.
  
  
• DCE coke futures drop w-o-w: Coke futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange declined by RMB 30/t ($4.39/t) w-o-w to RMB 1,640/t ($240.05/t) on 10 April, weighed by subdued steel demand and cautious mill buying.
  
  
• Brent crude futures remain volatile: Brent crude oil (June 2026 contract) was last assessed at $96.02/bbl on 10 April, with prices remaining volatile amid fluctuating macroeconomic cues and shifting supply expectations.
  
  

Outlook

Coal freight rates to India are expected to remain range-bound with a slight downside bias, as ample tonnage and cautious demand continue to weigh on sentiment. While softer bunker prices may offer some relief, uncertainty around the US-Iran ceasefire and limited clarity in the Strait of Hormuz are keeping market participants cautious. Dry bulk markets remain at a crossroads, with risks from volatile fuel costs, vessel rerouting, and insurance concerns likely to keep fixing activity uneven in the near term.