BigMint's India steel index rises sharply w-o-w as US-Iran war uncertainty grips domestic steel market

• Primary steel producers raise BF rebar prices by $5-11/t
  
  
• BigMint's benchmark HRC prices rise by INR 800/t ($9)
  
  
• Narrowing spread with imports may put a brake on price rise
  
  

Morning Brief: BigMint's India steel composite index witnessed a sudden surge last week, rising by 2.3% w-o-w, as assessed on 6 March 2026, compared with a drop of 0.2% the week before. This may be attributed to the 3.1% rise in the longs index, with rebar and structural steel prices increasing steadily.

The domestic steel and raw materials market strengthened on higher input costs and improved bookings. Semis and longs prices edged up, while trading remained cautious due to holidays and uncertainty related to the Iran war. Uncertainty related to a prolonged surge in energy costs looms over the market and has induced a knee-jerk reaction from the mills in terms of price hikes last week.

Flat steel prices, too, edged up w-o-w following list price revisions by the primary mills; the composite flats index rose by 1.3% w-o-w.

Highlights of price movements

Rebar prices rise across production routes: The primary producers increased rebar prices by INR 500-1,000/tonne (t) ($5-11/t) for early-March dispatches over end-February price tags. Post-revision, list prices stood at INR 58,500-59,500/t ($637-648/t) on landed basis.

Demand in the BF-rebar segment slowed this week due to festive holidays, with several market participants absent. Buyer interest remained subdued at elevated prices, while shortages of certain sizes persisted across select regions. Inventories at the leading mills dropped 10-15% m-o-m in early-March, as per sources. Limited supplies and strong demand from the projects segment led to a slight drop in inventories.

W-o-w, IF rebar prices rose by INR 1,200-2,900/t across regions on healthy trading activity and improved order bookings by mills. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and higher raw material costs, particularly sponge iron and billets, kept prices supported. However, trading activity slowed during the middle of the week due to Holi.

Mills hike HRC list prices: The primary mills increased list prices of hot-rolled coils (HRCs) and cold-rolled coils (CRCs) by INR 750-1,500/t ($8-16/t) for early March 2026 sales primarily due to rising raw material costs and reduced imports. in early March, the cumulative m-o-m increase in list prices was INR 1,200-1,500/t ($13-16/t).

M-o-m, trade-level HRC prices increased by INR 750/t ($8/t) to INR 54,500/t ($595/t) in March compared with INR 53,750/t ($587/t) in February. Meanwhile, CRC prices rose INR 800/t ($8/t) to INR 60,500/t ($660/t) from INR 59,700/t ($652/t).

BigMint's benchmark assessment (bi-weekly) for HRC (IS2062, Gr E250, 2.5-8 mm/CTL) increased by INR 800/t ($9/t) w-o-w to INR 54,500/t ($592/t) on 3 March against INR 53,700/t ($583/t) in the same period last week.

Domestic steelmakers continue to face rising input cost pressure, particularly from coking coal. The imposition of a 12% safeguard duty on steel imports has also significantly increased the landed cost of imports, particularly from China and other countries. The price gap between imported and domestic steel has widened, reducing competitive pressure from imports and providing domestic producers greater scope to revise prices upward.

Outlook

Geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has added an extra layer of volatility; if energy prices soar and logistics disruptions follow in the event of a prolonged conflict, then steel prices are expected to increase due to energy inflation.

However, the spread between domestic and imported HRC prices was estimated at around INR 2,000/t as of 6 March. So, any further increase in domestic prices may narrow the gap and bring both markets closer to parity. Therefore, domestic producers' ability to raise prices further seems limited.

This is true also of rebar and longs prices generally. If supplies in certain segments increase proportionately in March, the mills, of course, will have diminished scope for raising prices further.