BigMint's India steel index drops w-o-w as geopolitical tensions subside, supply stabilises

• HRC, CRC prices weaken on slow offtake
  
  
• Bulk HRC imports increase m-o-m in April
  
  
• Steel prices may soften further this week
  
  

Morning Brief: BigMint's flagship India steel composite index, a barometer of the domestic market, fell by 1.1% w-o-w, as assessed on the week ending 1 May 2026, with domestic steel prices shedding most of the gains made in April to slip back to levels last seen in end-March. The index fell for the third straight week as market sentiments softened with the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East subsiding somewhat and buyers showing resistance to high prices.

 

The flats index declined sharply by 1.4% w-o-w while the longs index fell by 1%. Elections in key states also impacted trades and labour shortages weighed on construction activities, directly affecting many regional steel markets.

Highlights of price movements

HRC, CRC prices weaken: BigMint's bi-weekly benchmark assessment for HRC (IS2062, Gr E250, 2.5-8 mm/CTL) declined by INR 600/t ($7/t) w-o-w to INR 57,800/t ($609/t) on 1 May compared to INR 58,400/t ($616/t) on 24 April. CRC (IS513, Gr O, 0.9 mm/CTL) prices were assessed at INR 65,200/t ($688/t), a decrease of INR 300/t ($3/t) w-o-w.

Buyers stayed on the sidelines, while sellers had little choice but to soften their offers to keep material moving. A market participant informed BigMint: "Transaction activity is muted, with buyers showing no urgency to pick up material beyond what is immediately needed." The mood is one of wait-and-watch.

On the other hand, availability remained stable across most regions with no significant production or logistics disruption, but appetite for restocking remained limited. "Sluggish inventory offtake and reduced mill lifting are a growing concern in north India," a steel mill source informed. In the south, election-related activity added to the market slowdown.

 

Bulk HRC imports rise in April: Notably, imports of bulk HRCs increased in April, as per provisional data with BigMint. Strong domestic consumption and the shrinking spread with landed cost of imports from especially the FTA countries supported HRC imports, which reached over 340,000 t in April compared to around 250,000 t in March.

IF rebar prices soften: Induction Furnace (IF) rebar trade prices trended downward across major markets. Sentiment remained weak in the beginning of the week due to subdued finished steel demand, though activity picked up around mid-week in the central and eastern regions. However, inventory pressure in many regions prompted manufacturers to offer discounts. Inventory days stood at around 10-12.

BF rebar prices unchanged w-o-w: Trade-level BF-rebar prices (distributor to dealer) remained unchanged w-o-w at INR 59,700/t ($629/t) exy-Mumbai. Buying interest remained weak, with buyers restricting purchases to immediate requirements. Distribution channel participants reported comfortable inventory levels due to slower material offtake. Most buyers avoided bulk procurement.

Election-related labour shortages disrupted construction activity, delaying procurement. Buyers adopted a cautious stance amid price volatility and uncertainty.

The BF to IF rebar price spread in Mumbai widened to around INR 10,000-10,500/t ($105-111/t) last week. IF rebar continues to dominate the market, accounting for an estimated 65-70% share.

Outlook

Geopolitical unrest, freight and energy volatility, fear of prolonged supply disruptions had led to a rally in steel prices which seems to be over, although the effects of ongoing conflicts in Iran and West Asia will continue to impact energy and metals markets sentiments. Amid high energy prices and declining steel production globally, domestic prices are expected to remain under pressure.

BigMint believes domestic steel prices may soften further this week as external headwinds gradually recede and supply stabilises.