BigMint's India steel index drops further due to Holi slowdown, muted trade sentiment

• Mills raise BF rebar prices despite softening trade sentiment
  
  
• HRC, CRC prices remain rangebound ahead of Holi trade slowdown
  
  
• Increasing volatility likely in coming weeks if Iran crisis intensifies
  
  

Morning Brief: BigMint's India steel composite index, a barometer of the domestic market, edged down by 0.2% w-o-w, as assessed on 27 February 2026, continuing the declining trend seen the previous week after a sustained nearly two-month rally in the steel market. Trade sentiment in the finished steel segment remained cautious after a series of price hikes by the mills in January and February. Buying activity also weakened ahead of the Holi festival and market holidays.

While the flats composite index remained unchanged w-o-w, despite the slight drop in the HRC index, the longs index witnessed a drop of 0.4%, as per assessment.

Price movements

Rebar prices show mixed trends: IF-rebar prices declined by INR 200-700/t across regions amid subdued market conditions. Buying interest remained weak and largely restricted to need-based procurement; market activity also slowed, mainly due to Holi. Mill inventories also rose to above 10 days compared to the earlier maintained level of around 8-10 days across regions.

However, the Indian primary steelmakers increased rebar prices by up to INR 1,000/t ($11/t) in the week ended 27 February, sources informed BigMint. Post-revision, list prices stood at INR 58,500-60,000/t ($643-659/t) on landed basis.

Trade-level BF-rebar prices (distributor to dealer) were stable w-o-w at INR 59,000/t ($648/t) exy-Mumbai. In the trade segment, prices remained largely range-bound in key markets owing to slow buying and material shortage. Steady demand and offtake from the projects segment kept prices supported, as the major mills are booked till the end of March and are operating at low stock levels.

The BF-IF rebar price spread in Mumbai widened to INR 9,500-10,000/t ($104-110/t), with BF rebar holding firm amid the downtrend in IF rebar, which continues to dominate the market with a 65-70% share.

HRC trade sentiments soften: Trade-level prices of hot-rolled coils (HRC) in India remained muted across key regions amid soft sentiments and slow trading activity during the week ending 24 February.

HRC market sentiment remained weak across regions, with slow demand and cautious buying dominating trade activity. While most markets saw stable to soft trends, tight availability of some specifications in certain markets in south India kept prices supported, with market participants awaiting fresh mill price direction.

BigMint's Indian HRC (S275) export index for the European Union (EU) remained unchanged w-o-w at around $570/t FOB main port as of 24 February. Similarly, the Indian HRC (SAE 1006) export index for the Middle East and South East Asia was unchanged w-o-w at around $485/t FOB main port amid weak demand and cautious buying sentiment across these regions.

Outlook

Steady inventory drawdown and material shortages in the rebar market may prompt the primary mills to target another round of price hike for early March. While HRC trade prices may witness a mild correction during the Holi market shutdown this week, mills will definitely try to go for another price hike in early March.

The Iran crisis and possible disruption in the Strait of Hormuz are likely to stoke commodity market volatility and energy inflation in the coming days. Therefore, market volatility and price fluctuations are increasingly likely in the coming week.