BigMint's India steel index drops for first time in 2026 after nearly 2-month rally

• BigMint's benchmark IF rebar prices drop INR 600/t w-o-w
  
  
• Mills hike BF-rebar prices amid cautious sentiments in market
  
  
• Trade-level HRC, CRC prices rise slightly towards weekend
  
  

Morning Brief: After witnessing a sustained rally since the last week of December 2025, BigMint's India steel composite index, a barometer of the domestic market, edged down by 0.4% w-o-w, as assessed on 20 February. The index slipped as market sentiments turned conservative and cautious amid the continuous hike in prices and the inevitable softening in key raw materials prices, BigMint notes.

While the flat steel index registered a slight increase of 0.2% w-o-w, thanks to an uptick in prices towards the end of the week, the longs index fell 0.7% following a sustained rally in prices since the beginning of January.

Price highlights

IF rebar prices decline: The rebar index fell 0.9% w-o-w. IF rebar trade prices witnessed a downtrend last week across major markets as trading in finished steel remained subdued, with buyers maintaining a cautious, wait-and-watch approach. Mills reduced prices and extended higher discounts to stimulate offtake, though booking volumes remained weak. Billet and sponge iron prices also declined w-o-w. Rebar inventory levels edged up, with stock days rising slightly to 10-15 days. IF rebar prices in Mumbai fell by INR 600/t ($7/t) w-o-w to INR 49,400/t ($543/t) exw on 20 February.

Mills raise BF rebar prices: However, the primary steelmakers increased rebar prices by up to INR 1,000/t ($11/t) this week, sources informed BigMint. Post-revision, list prices stood at INR 58,500-59,500/t ($643-654/t) on landed basis. Demand from the projects segment was steady, but market participants noted that buyers were reluctant to place fresh orders at elevated levels following the recent sharp price increases.

The BF-IF rebar price spread in Mumbai widened to around INR 9,000-9,500/t ($99-104/t) due to the hike in BF rebar prices and the downtrend in IF rebar prices. IF rebar continues to dominate the domestic market, with a 65-70% share.

HRC, CRC witness weekend uptick: Trade-level prices of hot-rolled coils (HRC) in India held steady in most regions during the week ending 20 February. After witnessing a decline during the 17th February assessment, BigMint's benchmark assessment (bi-weekly) for HRC (IS2062, Gr E250, 2.5-8 mm/CTL) rose by INR 100/t to INR 53,700/t on 20 February. CRC (IS513, Gr O, 0.9 mm/CTL) prices rose by INR 200/t to INR 59,700/t on Friday last as against INR 59,500/t on 17 February. These prices are ex-Mumbai for the distributor-to-dealer segment and exclude 18% GST.

Two major mills have raised HRC and CRC prices by INR 500/t ($5/t) for mid-February sales. However, price hike announcements from other mills are still awaited.

Supply has tightened due to maintenance shutdown at one major mill in the south of the country, while distributors in western India reported that mills are trying to raise prices to counteract the slight decline in rates and weakening sentiment.

Outlook

While HRC prices may be raised again this week by the primary mills amid higher cost of imports and rising prices across the globe, conservative trade sentiments testify that the rally in the BF rebar segment may be nearing an end. While demand and offtake remain strong, supply discipline and management will be crucial for the mills to keep prices supported at current levels.