Australian coking coal exports climb up m-o-m in May'26 on strong Asian offtake

• China emerges as growth driver, with imports surging by over 70%
  
  
• Exports to India halve amid elevated prices, weak steel market
  
  

Australia's coking coal exports rose 6% m-o-m and 20% y-o-y in May 2026 to 13.2 million tonnes (mnt) from 11.28 mnt in April. The improvement was primarily driven by higher procurement from key Asian steel-producing nations, improved cargo availability, and smoother port operations following earlier shipment disruptions.

On a cumulative basis, exports reached 59.08 mnt during January-May 2026, up 4% compared to 56.8 mnt in the corresponding period of 2025, reflecting resilient global demand for premium metallurgical coal.

Diverging import trends across key Asian markets

Import patterns among major buyers remained mixed, highlighting differing steel market dynamics and inventory positions. India's imports declined sharply by 46% m-o-m to 1.81 mnt and were down 52% y-o-y, largely due to elevated imported coal prices, comfortable inventories at steel mills, and a decline in Indian steel prices.

Japan's imports increased by 17% m-o-m to 2.51 mnt, supported by stable steel production requirements and routine restocking activity. South Koreas imports fell 24% m-o-m to 1.35 mnt and 15% y-o-y, reflecting cautious raw material purchasing amid subdued steel sector margins.

China emerged as the primary growth driver, with imports from Australia increasing by 114% m-o-m to 1.48 mnt and rising 77% y-o-y, supported by stronger procurement activity, improved demand from end-users, and the competitive availability of Australian material.

Vietnam also recorded strong growth in imports, which increased by 31% m-o-m to 1.23 mnt and were up 48% y-o-y, supported by robust industrial activity and continued preference for Australian coal due to its reliable supply and quality. Meanwhile, Taiwan's imports rose 35% m-o-m to 0.62 mnt and 17% y-o-y, as buyers returned to secure cargoes amid firm price expectations.

Coking coal prices strengthen on tight spot availability

Australia's premium hard coking coal prices increased by $5/t m-o-m in April and $6/t m-o-m during May 2026. The upward movement was supported by firm producer offers, tightening spot market availability, and higher vessel freights due to US-Iran geopolitical issues. Buyers gradually adjusted to higher replacement costs, while limited prompt cargo availability prevented any significant downward pressure on prices despite periodic resistance from end-users.

Port performance reflects mixed shipment dynamics

Export activity across Australia's major coal terminals displayed varying trends, reflecting differences in vessel scheduling, maintenance programmes, and cargo flow management. Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal (DBCT) recorded a 6% m-o-m increase in shipments to 4.2 mnt, supported by steady loading operations and improved vessel turnaround times.

Gladstone and Hay Point reported strong growth, with exports increasing 3% and 19% m-o-m to 4.14 mnt and 3.79 mnt, respectively, reflecting higher cargo nominations and improved operational efficiency. In contrast, shipments from Abbot Point declined by 23% m-o-m to 0.81 mnt, likely due to shipment scheduling variations and lower cargo availability during the month.

Outlook

Australia's coking coal exports are expected to remain supported by steady demand from China, Japan, Vietnam, and other Asian steelmakers, alongside expanding steelmaking capacity in Southeast Asia. Prices are likely to stay firm amid tight spot availability and potential supply-side disruptions. However, elevated coal costs and weak steel margins in key markets such as India and South Korea may temper buying interest, limiting significant upside in demand.