Australia: Thermal coal exports dip 20% m-o-m in Jan'26, but increase 18% y-o-y

• January's 20% m-o-m export decline reflects seasonal slowdown
  
  
• Y-o-y growth in exports, steady Japanese buying signal recovery potential
  
  

Australia's non-coking (thermal) coal exports registered a notable contraction in January 2026, declining 20% month-on-month (m-o-m) to 16.83 million tonnes (mnt), compared to 21.13 mnt in December 2025.

However, on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis, shipments were 18% higher than the 14.28 mnt recorded in January 2025, indicating that the latest decline reflects short-term adjustments rather than structural weakness.

Export performance overview

The m-o-m decline in January exports appears to be driven by a combination of seasonal factors, softer buying interest from key Asian markets, and potential logistical adjustments at major terminals. December typically benefits from year-end cargo movements and contractual fulfilments, while January often reflects slower trading activity due to inventory recalibration among buyers.

Despite the sequential decline, the y-o-y growth underscores comparatively stronger export flows relative to early 2025, supported by stable production and Australias continued role as a key supplier to Asia.

Import trends in key destinations

Japan remained the most resilient buyer of Australian non-coking coal in January. Imports declined marginally by 6% m-o-m to 7.27 mnt. The limited drop reflects Japans stable baseload power generation requirements and long-term contractual procurement structure, which tends to smooth short-term volatility.

Shipments to China declined sharply by 46% m-o-m to 3.65 mnt. The steep contraction may be attributed to improved domestic coal availability in China, increased reliance on alternative suppliers, and seasonal demand moderation. Additionally, fluctuations in price competitiveness versus other origins may have influenced procurement decisions.

South Korea's imports fell 17% m-o-m to 1.65 mnt, while Taiwan recorded a similar 17% decline to 1.54 mnt. The parallel reduction suggests synchronised inventory management and moderated power sector demand during the winter period.

Vietnam emerged as a relative bright spot, with imports rising 13% m-o-m to 1.01 mnt, reflecting sustained industrial and power sector demand. In contrast, Malaysia recorded a sharper 32% m-o-m decline to 0.29 mnt, likely reflecting short-term procurement adjustments and adequate stock levels.

Port performance and terminal activity

The contraction in export volumes was reflected across major Australian coal terminals. Port of Newcastle handled 12.34 mnt in January, marking a 20% m-o-m decline, broadly in line with the national export trend.

Abbot Point recorded a sharper 29% fall to 1.58 mnt. Port of Gladstone saw shipments decrease by 13% m-o-m to 1.35 mnt. Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal posted a 24% decline to 0.77 mnt. Port Kembla recorded the steepest fall, down 56% m-o-m to 0.18 mnt, suggesting either shipment deferrals or vessel scheduling adjustments.

In contrast, Port of Brisbane registered a 28% m-o-m increase in handling volumes to 0.62 mnt, partially offsetting declines elsewhere and indicating localised cargo flow improvements.

Overall, the broad-based decline across major terminals reinforces that the export contraction was systemic rather than isolated to a single region.

Outlook

Australian non-coking coal exports are expected to stabilise gradually, with winter demand in Northeast Asia and China's import strategy remaining key drivers. Emerging Southeast Asian demand may provide partial support. January's decline appears cyclical, with a moderate recovery dependent on regional demand and price competitiveness.