Australia: Coking coal exports climb in Apr'26 on improved flows amid divergent market trends

• Exports recover amid cautious demand
  
  
• Divergent regional demand keeps prices range-bound
  
  

Australia's coking coal exports increased to 12.48 mnt in April 2026, marking an 11% m-o-m rise from 11.28 mnt in March and a robust 20% y-o-y growth, indicating a recovery in volumes.

On a cumulative basis, exports reached 45.86 mnt during January-April 2026, up 3% compared to 44.47 mnt in the same period last year. Despite the annual increase, the relatively modest cumulative growth suggests that global trade flows remain somewhat constrained, primarily due to uneven steel production trends and cautious procurement by key Asian steelmakers, even as supply-side disruptions have eased.

Diverging import trends reflect uneven steel sector performance

Import demand across major Asian markets remained mixed, reflecting disparities in regional steel output and consumption patterns. India's imports rose marginally by 2% m-o-m to 2.55 mnt, but declined 4.4% y-o-y, indicating measured buying amid sufficient inventory levels and price sensitivity.

Japan's imports fell sharply by 22% m-o-m to 2.04 mnt, as steelmakers adjusted procurement in line with softening domestic steel demand, although volumes remained slightly higher on y-o-y basis.

In contrast, South Korea recorded a significant rebound, with imports surging 70.6% m-o-m to 1.78 mnt, up 30% y-o-y, supported by improved steel production and restocking activity. China's imports increased 10% m-o-m to 0.69 mnt, though still down 45% y-o-y, reflecting continued preference for alternative supply sources and subdued steel sector momentum.

Among smaller importers, Vietnam showed strong growth, with imports rising 15% m-o-m to 0.94 mnt (up 37% y-o-y), driven by expanding steel capacity and steady construction demand. Conversely, Taiwan's imports declined sharply by 37% m-o-m to 0.46 mnt, indicating weaker short-term procurement and inventory adjustments.

A halt in LNG exports from the Persian Gulf following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is triggering a structural shift in global fuel consumption patterns. The disruption is forcing countries to pivot towards coal as the only immediately scalable substitute.

Mixed port throughput highlights uneven operational activity

Export performance across Australias key coal terminals reflected mixed operational trends, suggesting variations in cargo scheduling, maintenance cycles, and shipment flows. Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal (DBCT) recorded a marginal 0.4% m-o-m increase to 4 mnt, indicating stable throughput. In contrast, Abbot Point shipments declined by 5.6% m-o-m to 1.05 mnt, possibly due to lower vessel line-ups or logistical constraints.

Meanwhile, Gladstone and Hay Point ports reported strong gains, with exports rising 20% and 37.9% m-o-m to 4.03 mnt and 3.18 mnt, respectively. This increase was likely supported by improved vessel turnaround times and clearing of prior shipment backlogs, contributing to the overall rise in exports.

Outlook

Australia's coking coal exports are likely to remain stable, supported by steady supply, while Southeast Asia and South Korea could provide support, with prices range-bound to firm.