• Trade-level HRC prices rise sharply w-o-w on policy boost
• BF rebar prices maintain positive momentum, IF rebar edges down
• Steel prices in positive territory as inventory drawdown continues

Morning Brief: BigMint's flagship India steel composite index, a barometer of the domestic steel market, remained in positive territory in the week ending 9 January 2026, although the market euphoria of the previous week died down, with the sudden price surge moderating significantly. The previous week had seen the index surging by over 4% w-o-w, the highest on a weekly basis in close to four years.

However, that excitement did not sustain and last week saw the market adjusting to price hikes across the board. Rapid inventory consumption and policy boost acted together to propel prices right in the beginning of the year, while now the market seems to be gauging how long-lasting might the surge actually turn out to be.

The composite flats index edged up by 1.4% w-o-w, sustaining the positive momentum, while the longs index actually fell by 0.9% as the IF-based regional steel markets adjusted to the price surge.

Highlights of price movements

Rebar prices reflect mixed trend: IF-route rebar prices declined by INR 500-1,800/t across regions. Traders showed limited interest in purchasing at higher rates. Mills and manufacturers increased trade discounts, leading to prices softening. Prices corrected toward the latter half of the week. Mills did not face inventory pressure; inventory was assessed at around 8-12 days varying across regions.

The BF rebar market, however, saw the positive momentum sustaining, with trade prices rising w-o-w across major markets, supported by price hikes announced by the primary mills, improved trading activity, and tight material availability in the distribution channel.

The primary producers had raised rebar list prices by up to INR 1,000/t ($11/t) during the week, taking landed prices to around INR 52,000-53,000/t ($577-588/t). As a result, trade-level BF rebar prices increased by INR 600/t ($7/t) w-o-w to approximately INR 52,500/t ($583/t) exy-Mumbai, excluding 18% GST.

Strong offtake in the trade segment and reduced supplies led to shortages in select sizes, pushing offers higher.

Safeguard duty, restocking boost HRC prices: Trade-level prices of hot-rolled coils (HRCs) increased w-o-w to INR 49,000-51,600/t ($543-572/t). Cold-rolled coil (CRC) prices showed an uptick w-o-w, ranging between INR 53,500-58,700 ($593-651/t).

BigMint's benchmark bi-weekly assessment for HRC (IS2062, Gr E250, 2.5-8 mm/CTL) rose sharply by INR 1,200/t ($13/t) w-o-w to INR 51,000/t ($565/t).

On the other hand, CRC (IS513, Gr O, 0.9 mm/CTL) prices increased by INR 600/t ($7/t) w-o-w to INR 57,000/t ($632/t) on 6 January against INR 56,400/t ($525/t) last week. These prices are ex-Mumbai for the distributor-to-dealer segment and exclude 18% GST.

Domestic HRC prices stayed high after two price hikes in December and another in early January. Steelmakers are raising prices following the safeguard duty announcement, supported by restocking activity, and positive market expectations, even though demand remains moderate.

Outlook

Domestic flat steel prices are expected to sustain their current momentum, thanks to the safeguard duty and improving restocking activity. Similarly, rebar prices are expected to remain firm on active demand in the trade and projects segments. Anticipation of further mill price hikes for both HRC and rebar is likely to offer support to prices.

However, will the demand push sustain amid the price hikes even after exhaustion of accumulated inventory in the system? If it does, the upward momentum in steel prices is likely to continue.

Join BUILD CONNECT 2026 | Steel & Construction Show, India next-generation platform for the steel and construction distribution network, on 19th & 20th February 2026 at Yashobhoomi, New Delhi. 

The event brings together leading distributors, dealers, mills, and industry experts for high-impact networking, product exposure, and strategic insights on market trends and channel transformation.

 With 2,000+ participants, 80+ exhibitors, expert speakers, awards, and masterclasses, BuildConnect 2026 is where the industry connects and grows. 

Limited Seats Available, Book Your Slot Now.