India: South African coal prices fall further on declining inquiries

• Portside thermal coal stocks rise 3% w-o-w
  
  
• Sponge iron prices in India dip further
  
  

South African thermal coal prices at Indian ports fell again this week by INR 50-100/t amid muted demand and persistent monsoon-related slowdown.

As per BigMint's assessment, RB2 (5500 NAR) grade coal prices were assessed at INR 7,800/t exw-Gangavaram, while RB3 (4800 NAR) dropped to INR 6,850/t. These are now the tradeable benchmarks, though market participants reported almost no confirmed deals amid unusual bidding behaviour. Buyers quoted unrealistic prices, as per sources, particularly for lower NAR material, which continues to disrupt transactions.

Thermal coal stocks at Indian ports rose by 3% w-o-w to 15.40 mnt in week 22 of CY'25, up from 15 mnt in Week 21, reflecting higher vessel arrivals and slow offtake.

India imported nearly 4 mnt of South African thermal coal in May, up 12% m-o-m and 58% y-o-y, making it the largest buyer. However, with monsoon making an early entry, stock liquidation has slowed, adding pressure to prices at key discharge ports.

Export offers also remained under pressure, with RB2 offered at $71/t FOB and RB3 flat at $60/t FOB. A 50,000 t RB2 cargo (2H June loading) was bid at $66/t and offered at $68/t FOB RBCT.

Domestic coal prices soften

Domestic coal prices dropped again on weak industrial interest. Both 4500 and 5000 GCV grades fell by INR 50/t to INR 4,250/t and INR 4,750/t exw-Bilaspur, respectively. With the majority of SECL's auctioned volumes being power-grade material, industrial buying has remained cautious.

Sponge iron market under pressure

Sponge iron (CDRI) prices at Rourkela declinedby INR 100/t w-o-w to INR 24,400/t exw amid continued weak buying. PDRI traded within INR 22,20025,500/t, while CDRI ranged from INR 24,50029,500/t. Steel sector weakness weighed on demand for raw material inputs.

Outlook

With continued rain-related disruptions, low portside offtake, and price pressure from domestic coal and sponge iron markets, South African thermal coal is expected to trade sideways or may even fall in the near term. Unless international offers decline significantly or steel sector demand picks up, import momentum may slow down.