India: Copper prices decline w-o-w tracking LME price movements

• Glencore, Trafigura focus on US shipments.
  
  

• Copper shifted from China to US market.
  
  

Domestic copper armature scrap prices were assessed at INR 784,000/tonne (t) ex-Delhi, down INR 4,000/t w-o-w, while copper motors mix scrap prices dropped slightly w-o-w to $1,180/t following the drop in LME prices to $9,336/t levels, down $175/t w-o-w.

Meanwhile, secondary continuously cast rods (CCR) (99.90%) were assessed at INR 842,000/t (ex-Delhi), reflecting a 0.2% weekly increase with primary CCR prices up by 0.6% to INR 870,000/t.

The local copper market remains largely driven by need-based purchases, with mills scaling back procurement. Despite expectations, the removal of import duty has yet to impact Indian market prices.

According to a source, "Some Indian market players are exploring export opportunities for burnt copper, driven by excess supply and better realisations in global markets."

Copper imports

• Copper scrap imports stood at 25,768 t in December 2024, decreasing to 24,567 t in January, a 4.6% decline m-o-m. In CY'24, total copper scrap imports reached 319,372 t.
  
  
• Finished flat imports totalled 14,650 t in January compared to 14,744 t in December, reflecting a 0.6% drop. The total for CY'24 was 159,629 t.
  
  
• Finished longs imports increased from 8,101 t in December to 9,660 t in January, marking a 19% rise, with CY'24 total at 167,672 t.
  
  
• Semi-finished imports saw a notable increase, rising from 34,140 t in January to 24,341 t in December, reflecting a 40% m-o-m growth. The total for the calendar year 2024 reached 542,377 t.
  
  

Global copper market overview

A source commented, "Major players like Glencore and the Trafigura Group have been increasingly focusing on shipping copper to the US market in recent weeks. While the majority of these shipments are sourced from South America, there have also been inquiries regarding the possibility of moving copper from Asian warehouses monitored by the LME."

This shift is redirecting copper, which typically flows to China, the world's largest consumer, toward the US market. The rise in US copper prices is also pushing up costs for domestic manufacturers, who have been paying an average premium of 8% above global prices since Trump proposed copper tariffs in late January. A key challenge for copper importers is that only a select few producers are approved for delivery on Comex, with Chinese smelters notably excluded from the list.

Australian Birch Cliff, containing 94% copper, is predominantly being shipped to China at 94% LME. Some sellers are blending materials to enhance quality to 96% copper content for better returns. India's bids remain lower at 91%, making Chinese buyers more favourable. Speculation about a potential EU export ban on copper motors continues, while China's demand for high-quality copper from Australia and large motors from the UK remains strong. The construction of new smelters in China is driving demand and pushing copper prices up globally.

China remains a strong competitor in the copper market, offering prices for copper cables that are $70-80/t higher than in India. Consequently, suppliers are prioritising shipments to China and Thailand over India due to more favourable prices.

Freight costs from Australia to Chennai and Mundra stand at $1,500/t, whereas Australia to Thailand remains much lower at $350/t, making other Asian markets more attractive for shipments.

Copper DRUID scrap from Australia to CFR Chennai prices: high-grade (94.5% LME), mid-grade (92% LME) and low-grade (89% LME).

Copper meatballs 20% from Australia were sold at $1,715.

Deals have been reported for copper motors from Australia to CFR Chennai: Small motors ($1,270-1275/t), mix motors ($1,170-1175) and large motors ($1,050-1060/t)

Additionally, offers for Candy Berry at are Australia, 97% LME while Birch Cliff is 94.5% LME to India. Brass honey sold at 64% LME.

Outlook

Copper prices are expected to remain rangebound in the short term due to solid inventory levels. However, if LME prices surpass $9,500/t, Indian bids may strengthen, driving increased procurement activity.