• Copper production to grow 2.3% globally by 2027 outlook
• Global expansions and projects to strengthen copper supply growth

Global copper mine production is projected to reach 24 mnt in 2026, reflecting 1.6% growth, and is expected to rise further to approximately 26 mnt in 2027, marking a 2.3% increase, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). Chile is expected to retain its position as the largest global producer, followed by key contributors such as the Democratic Republic of Congo and Peru.

Global refined copper production is forecast to reach around 30.44 mnt in 2026, registering very marginal growth of 0.4%, primarily due to constrained concentrate availability. However, refined output is expected to rebound to approximately 32.0 mnt in 2027, reflecting a 3% increase, driven by improved raw material availability and expansion in secondary production.

Expansions and strategic investments reinforce medium-term supply pipeline

The production outlook is being reinforced by a combination of project ramp-ups and strategic expansions across upstream and downstream segments. Hindustan Copper Ltd is targeting an increase in ore production capacity from 4 mtpa to 12.2 mtpa by FY30, implying nearly a threefold expansion. Meanwhile, a joint venture between US-based Virtus Minerals and Indias Lloyds Metals & Energy has acquired Chemaf in the DRC, with plans to restart and ramp up operations across Kolwezi and the Mutoshi project by 2027, potentially contributing incremental supply over the medium term.

In Panama, First Quantum Minerals has initiated processing of 38 mnt of stockpiled ore at Cobre Panama, containing 70,000 tonnes of recoverable copper, offering near-term supply support without a full restart of mining. On the refining side, capacity expansion continues to accelerate, led by China. Zhejiang Hailiangs proposed 0.15 mtpa copper processing facility in Saudi Arabia reflects a broader push toward downstream integration and secondary copper production.

Steady demand but rising surplus signals downside risks for prices

Global refined copper consumption is projected to reach 28.66 mnt in 2026 and 29.24 mnt in 2027, reflecting moderate growth of about 2%, indicating stable but not particularly strong demand. China will continue to drive global consumption, while demand in regions such as the EU and Japan remains subdued. Structural drivers including energy transition, urbanisation, and digitalization continue to support demand, though growth remains measured rather than robust.

The global copper market is expected to move into a surplus of ~96,000 tonnes in 2026, widening to ~377,000 tonnes in 2027, as supply growth outpaces demand. This imbalance, supported by stronger refined output and expanding secondary supply, may lead to inventory build-up and downward pressure on prices, particularly amid macroeconomic uncertainties.

Outlook

The copper market is expected to remain structurally strong in the near term. With gradual mine supply growth and stronger refined output expansion, the market is likely to stay well supplied through 2027, maintaining a balanced-to-surplus phase, with prices sensitive to global economic and geopolitical developments.