India steel index records slower growth w-o-w as market calms down amid Iran ceasefire talks

• Mills hike HRC, CRC prices but trade sentiment weakens
  
  
• IF and BF rebar markets remain volatile, prices fluctuate
  
  
• Steel prices to remain strong as ceasefire talks fail, supplies tighten
  
  

Morning Brief: India composite steel index, BigMint's flagship offering which mirrors trends in the domestic market, edged up by 0.3% w-o-w on 10 April 2026, reflecting the sustained rally in domestic steel prices. The index hit a three-year high last week, and continues to hover at the same level, amid geopolitical crisis in the Middle East, surging input cost pressure, production disruptions due to fuel unavailability and a panic reaction in the commodity markets.

However, steel prices started showing signs of a gradual meltdown after a sustained rally last week amid talks of a US-Iran ceasefire calming the commodity and metals markets worldwide. Although the longs composite index recorded a 0.3% uptick last week, the flats index was largely flat, with the HRC sub-index showing a marginal decline.

Highlights of price movements

Mills announce April list price hike for HRC, CRC: BigMint's bi-weekly benchmark assessment for HRC (IS2062, Gr E250, 2.5-8 mm/CTL) declined by INR 400/t w-o-w to INR 59,300/t on 10 April compared to INR 59,700/t on 3 April. CRC (IS513, Gr O, 0.9 mm/CTL) prices decreased by INR 200/t w-o-w to INR 67,000/t against INR 67,200/t on 3 April.

However, earlier in the week, leading steelmakers revised their list prices upward for early-April 2026, raising HRC and CRC prices by INR 1,000-3,500/t ($11-38/t) on constrained material supply, sustained raw material cost pressure and lingering geopolitical uncertainty.

On the demand side, however, the momentum appears measured, largely driven by low inventory levels and the urgency to secure material at relatively competitive prices, rather than a strong uptick in end-use consumption.

HRC export market muted: Another reason why trade prices softened was muted export sentiments. HRC export activity was subdued as escalating geopolitical tensions and persistent disruptions across key maritime routes continued to weigh on trade flows. Widespread vessel diversions, longer transit times, and a sharp increase in freight and war-risk insurance costs, significantly undermined export competitiveness across major destinations.

Firm raw material prices: Imported coking coal prices climbed by $10/t m-o-m to $262/t in March, up from $252/t in February, adding direct pressure on production economics. Moreover, NMDC has raised iron ore prices by INR 450-550/t ($5-6/t) for April, reflecting the firm recovery in semi-finished and finished steel prices seen towards the close of FY26.

GP index up: Production of cold-rolled and coated steel products is constrained by limited gas and fuel availability, squeezing supply across the value chain. The GP index rose by 0.5% with mills announcing additional hikes of INR 3,000-4,000/t ($32-43/t) for galvanised plain (GP) and colour-coated (PPGI) products attributed to sustained cost pressure, restricted supply and higher logistics costs.

BF & IF rebar markets show mixed trends: Trade-level BF-rebar prices edged down by INR 100/t ($1/t) w-o-w to INR 60,500/t ($651/t) exy-Mumbai on 10 April. Buying activity remained moderate across key regions, while north India witnessed relatively subdued demand, according to sources. Distributors are holding ample inventory leading to cautious procurement at elevated prices.

IF rebar trade prices were volatile across major markets. Prices rose initially as manufacturers raised offers supported by bookings and lower inventories. However, prices witnessed a decline following a ceasefire announcement mid-week, triggering mild panic selling amid weak buying interest. Buying remained largely need-based amid fluctuating trends. Mills reported low inventory levels of around 5-8 days.

The BF to IF rebar price spread in Mumbai narrowed further w-o-w to INR 6,500-7,000/t ($70-75/t) last week. IF rebar continues to dominate the market, accounting for an estimated 65-70% share.

Outlook

The primary mills are expected to announce price hikes soon on tight supplies and cost pressure. With the Middle East ceasefire talks falling through and the possibility of continued disruption, steel prices are expected to remain strong in the coming week.

Furthermore, tight supplies are likely to continue, with one steel major planning maintenance shutdowns at two of its facilities in April. These outages are expected to further tighten material availability and provide support to the ongoing price rally.