BigMint: India HRC export index drops $8/t w-o-w amid weak global sentiments

• Vietnam's Hoa Phat lowers HRC prices
  
  
• China's SHFE HRC futures recover after dropping sharply
  
  

BigMint's India HRC (SAE 1006) export index (for the Middle East and Vietnam) fell by $8/t w-o-w to $567/t against $575/t FOB east coast India. Prices dropped amid sluggish global market sentiments and slow trade activities. Moreover, China's Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) has sharply declined by RMB 94/t ($13/t w-o-w. While, Vietnamese steel major Hoa Phat has reduced HRC prices by $40-45/t CIF HCMC.

Rationale: No confirmed deal (T1) was reported in this publishing window. Thirteen indicative prices were considered as T2 inputs out of fourteen inputs received. The final price was an average of T1 and T2 inputs, which stood at $567/t FOB. CFR prices were converted to FOB by deducting freight costs from the buyer or seller.

Market updates

1. Vietnam's Hoa phat lowers domestic HRC prices: Imported HRC offers to Vietnam dropped by around $20-25/t w-o-w from India. Offers for Indian HRC (SAE1006) were heard at $565/t CFR Vietnam for May shipments against last week's $590/t CFR. Moreover, Chinese HRC offers remained range-bound w-o-w to $550/t CFR HCMC. Prices dropped amid subdued demand in Vietnam and weaker domestic HRC prices. In addition, Vietnamese integrated steel manufacturer, Hoa Phat, has lowered its monthly HRC (SAE1006, non-skinpassed) prices by $40-45/t for June-July'24 sales, sources informed BigMint. Post-revision, the effective prices stand at $553/t or VND 13,740,000/t, excluding VAT. Lower exports, sluggish domestic construction activity, and recent weakening of imported HRC offers have all contributed to the price drop.

2. HRC import offers for ME steady: Indian HRC export offers to the ME stayed flat w-o-w at $605-610/t CFR, informed source. In addition, Chinese HRC export offers to ME remained range-bound for the week. The offers from tier-1 mills hovering around $570-580/t CFR, while, Chinese tier-2 mills current offers are ranging between $545-550/t CFR for the week. The decline in imports in ME is attributed to decline in domestic demand. Moreover, buyers are waiting for even lower prices during Ramadan. On the other hand, Indian HRC prices could face downward pressure if China continues to cut prices.

3. Indian HRC export offers to EU stable w-o-w: Indian HRC export prices for Europe (S275, 3mm) remained unchanged this week at around $640-650/t CFR Antwerp ($590-600/t FOB east coast India) with small parcel deals getting concluded. Post Easter holidays, trading activity in the region remained subdued. Domestic HRC prices in EU are in downward trend, mills are reducing offers to boost sales. Moreover, buyers are reluctant to purchase imports due to uncertainty in safeguard duty measures. "Other import origins are offering closer to $630/t CFR Antwerp" as per an EU based source.

Outlook:

The Indian HRC export market is likely to face downward pressure in the near future. Moreover, export volumes might be affected unless there is a significant improvement in global market sentiments or a rise in demand from key regions. Also, domestic price announcement of mills for April is round the corner, which may give clear price indications in the coming week.