India's imported manganese ore prices inch up w-o-w

• Resurgence in Indian demand drives imported ore activity
  
  
• Weekly cargo arrivals at Indian ports recover
  
  

Imported manganese ore prices exhibited a 2% increase w-o-w, with variations across different origins:

• Gabonese high-grade ore: Prices of Gabonese high-grade (44% Mn) ore climbed by $0.10/dmtu to $6.20/dmtu, reflecting rising production and handling costs, along with ongoing rail maintenance impacting supply.
  
  
• Australian high-grade ore: Australian high-grade (46% Mn) ore witnessed a similar increase of $0.10/dmtu to $6.60/dmtu due to supply constraints and rising inquiries from Chinese buyers.
  
  
• South African lumps: South African lumps (37% Mn) saw a slight rise of $0.15/dmtu to $5.10/dmtu. However, limited upward price movement is possible due to existing production cuts in the region.
  
  

Market overview

Rising ore prices in China: The downstream manganese alloy market exhibited tentative signs of recovery, but high ore prices remained a major hurdle. This creates a cautious market sentiment, with participants adopting a wait-and-see approach. However, a recent Chinese purchase of 10,000 tonnes of Gabonese manganese ore at a higher price point (6.1/dmtu) has injected some optimism, suggesting a potential upward trend.

Rising manganese alloy prices in India: Manganese alloy prices have seen a significant surge attributed to elevated production costs. Both the upstream and downstream markets have displayed strong performance, driven by concerns over potential further increases in manganese ore and alloy prices. This trend indicates growing demand, likely fuelled by the upward trajectory of domestic steel prices.

Dwindling high-grade ore inventories in India: A decrease in readily available high-grade manganese ore within India is pushing steel mills towards imported resources. This shift is driving renewed activity in major ore-producing regions like Australia and Gabon.

Recovery in India's weekly cargo arrivals: A confluence of factors is contributing to a potential uptrend in the global manganese ore market, with India playing a key role. Increased domestic demand for manganese ore is driving activity in the imported ore market, as evidenced by a 123% w-o-w rise in cargo arrivals at Indian ports (reaching 114,005 tonnes between 23 and 30 April, 2024).

While the outlook is positive, continued monitoring of manganese alloy prices, freight rates, and steel production are crucial. The potential restart of South 32's Gemco operations could offer some relief, but the impact depends on ore volume and quality, sources informed.

India's import focus is driving global market activity. Close attention to these factors and potential new suppliers are essential for navigating this evolving landscape.